A tight-looking mid-table meeting on the south coast, and a genuinely balanced one. Marco Rose begins home life at the Vitality still chasing a first point after his side led at Manchester City on the opening day before losing 2–1 in the closing stages; David Moyes brings an Everton team that opened with a composed 2–0 win over Crystal Palace and has scored in every game across its recent run. The market reflects the even nature of it: Bournemouth are only around 46% to win, with the draw and an Everton victory both close to 27%. History leans the hosts' way — they have won four of the last five competitive meetings — but Everton arrive the healthier side and won at this ground as recently as last December. With no outcome dominating, the dependable value sits in double-chance cover, a sensible goals band and a handicap cushion rather than a straight home win.
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Petrović; Smith, Hill, A. Silva, Truffert; Cook, Scott; Rayan, Kluivert, Tavernier; Evanilson. A depleted squad leans more attacking load onto Tavernier and Evanilson.
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Pickford; O'Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko; Garner, Gueye; Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, Armstrong; Barry. A near-clean bill of health hands Moyes a settled side.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2026 | Everton | 1–2 | Bournemouth | Yes | 3 |
| 02 Dec 2025 | Bournemouth | 0–1 | Everton | No | 1 |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Everton | 0–3 | Bournemouth | No | 3 |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Everton | 0–2 | Bournemouth | No | 2 |
| 04 Jan 2025 | Bournemouth | 1–0 | Everton | No | 1 |
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to score | Yes | Solid Pick | 1.23 | 79% |
| Asian handicap | Everton +1.5 | Solid Pick | 1.26 | 75% |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | Solid Pick | 1.28 | 74% |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | Solid Pick | 1.36 | 74% |
| Double chance | Bournemouth or draw | Solid Pick | 1.31 | 72% |
| Everton to score | Yes | Solid Pick | 1.41 | 70% |
| Draw no bet | Bournemouth | No edge | 1.53 | 62% |
| Match result | Bournemouth win | No edge | 2.12 | 47% |
| Match result | Everton win | No edge | 3.58 | 27% |
| Match result | Draw | No edge | 3.58 | 26% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | No edge | 1.88 | 49% |
| BTTS | Yes | No edge | 1.75 | 50% |
| BTTS | No | No edge | 2.10 | 50% |
| Bournemouth team goals | Over 1.5 | No edge | 2.05 | 46% |
| Home clean sheet | Bournemouth yes | No edge | 2.85 | 33% |
| Away clean sheet | Everton yes | No edge | 4.10 | 22% |
| Asian handicap | Bournemouth -1.5 | No edge | 3.75 | 25% |
| Both teams to score 2+ | Yes | Avoid | 5.20 | 13% |
Several of these express the same underlying view — a game with goals but no blowout. They are reliable rather than value, so pick one from each theme for an accumulator rather than stacking correlated legs (see the builder notes below).
Our model lands Over 1.5 goals at roughly 74%. Both teams find the net more often than not, so a game clearing a single goal is the dependable read here. The tidiest single expression of the "goals will come" theme — the two team-to-score picks below say the same thing in a different shape.
The hosts have found the net in four of the last five meetings and our model has them scoring about 79% of the time. A short-priced banker rather than a value play — best used as a single leg, and note it overlaps heavily with Over 1.5, so keep only one of the two on a slip.
Everton opened with a goal on the board and have scored in every one of their last five across competitions; our model puts them on the scoresheet around 70% of the time against a Bournemouth defence missing regulars. The more useful of the two team-to-score bankers given the slightly bigger price.
This wins unless Bournemouth win by two or more — a two-goal home margin is only about 25% in our model, so Everton +1.5 lands near 75%. In a game this even, against an under-strength Bournemouth, a comfortable home rout is the least likely result.
Our model has Under 3.5 goals at about 74%. Everton's defensive discipline and a cagey, even matchup point to a controlled scoreline — every one of the last five meetings finished with three goals or fewer. Pairs with Over 1.5 to back the 2–3 goal band this game profiles toward.
Our model puts Bournemouth avoiding defeat at about 72%. Home advantage plus four wins from the last five competitive meetings make the hosts the side to lean on, and covering the draw guards against an even contest. A dependable anchor rather than an edge.
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge at current odds, and none reaches the 65% assessment a Solid Pick needs:
These outcomes are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Odds parsing is clean across both the match and goals markets, and the model sits almost exactly on the market throughout — the team-level goals prices line up with the same lambdas the main lines imply, which is why this reads as a low-edge fixture where the value is reliability rather than mispricing. The one flagged tension is both-teams-to-score: the goals model sits near 50%, while the head-to-head has seen both teams score in only one of the last five. That market is left untipped. Overall confidence is Medium, reflecting how evenly the game profiles and Bournemouth's unsettled team news.