--- title: Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia Predictions - May 10, 2026 description: Get expert predictions and betting tips for the La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Valencia, focusing on key player insights and match statistics. --- [Football Betting Tips & Predictions in Nigeria - betCompare ](https://betcompare.ng/football/tips) # [Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia Predictions - May 10, 2026](https://betcompare.ng/football/tips/athletic-bilbao-vs-valencia-predictions-may-10-2026) Written by [betCompare Editor](https://betcompare.ng/football/tips/author/betcompare-editor) | May 8, 2026 10:16:54 AM La Liga Matchday 35 Estadio de San Mamés, Bilbao Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia **Sunday, 10 May 2026**  ·  Kick-off: **15:15 WAT** (14:15 UTC / 15:15 CEST)   Web search active — live data. ## Match context Athletic Bilbao sit 8th in La Liga on 44 points after 34 games, level with Getafe and three points behind Celta Vigo in 6th. With four matches remaining, a win keeps their European qualification push alive. Valencia are 12th on 39 points — mid-table but with their safety not fully secured, sitting just three points above Alaves (36pts) and Sevilla (37pts) with the final stretch approaching. Both sides carry genuine motivation. Athletic will look to capitalise on San Mamés, where they have not lost to Valencia in their last five meetings at this ground. No mid-week fixture has preceded either team ahead of this Matchday 35 kickoff. ## Team news Athletic Bilbao OutÍñigo Lekue — injury OutMaroan Sannadi — injury OutBeñat Prados — injury CardsÍñigo Ruiz de Galarreta — 10 yellows this season CardsDani Vivian — 9 yellows this season **Expected XI (4-3-3):** Simón; Areso, Vivian, Laporte, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar, Sancet; N.Williams, Guruzeta, Rego Valencia OutMouctar Diakhaby — unavailable OutDimitri Foulquier — unavailable OutBaptiste Santamaria — unavailable OutUnai Núñez — unavailable CardsCésar Tárrega — card accumulation risk **Expected XI (4-2-3-1):** Dimitrievski; Saravia, Tárrega, Comert, Gayá; Pepelu, Rodriguez; Rioja, Guerra, Ramazani; Sadiq ## Referee intelligence Referee Unconfirmed Not yet announced Avg cards/game — Awaiting appointment Classification Pending Fixture intensity High European chase vs mid-table pressure Athletic Bilbao's midfield carries significant card risk regardless of officiating style — Ruiz de Galarreta (10 yellows this season) and Vivian (9 yellows) are among La Liga's most frequently booked players. The 1st Half Cards 1+ line priced at 1.15 reflects the bookmaker's own expectation of an early booking. ## Recent form & head-to-head Athletic Bilbao — last 5 (most recent first) W L W L W W 1-0 Osasuna · L 1-2 Villarreal · W 2-1 Betis · L 0-1 Barcelona · W 2-1 Elche. 8th · 44 pts · W13 D5 L16. xG For 1.66/game (6th in La Liga), 14 shots/game, 4.58 on target. Valencia — last 5 away (most recent first) D L W L L D 1-1 Mallorca · L 0-1 Elche · W 2-0 Sevilla · L 0-1 Oviedo · L 1-2 Villarreal. 12th · 39 pts · W10 D9 L15. xG For 1.24/game, 3.00 shots on target/game away (19th in La Liga). Head-to-head — venue-matched (Valencia away at San Mamés, last 5 meetings) | Date | Competition | Result | Goals | BTTS | O/U 2.5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 28 Aug 2024 | La Liga | **Ath. Bilbao 1–0 Valencia** | 1 | No | Under | | 29 Oct 2023 | La Liga | **Ath. Bilbao 2–2 Valencia** | 4 | Yes | Over | | 21 Aug 2022 | La Liga | **Ath. Bilbao 1–0 Valencia** | 1 | No | Under | | 07 May 2022 | La Liga | **Ath. Bilbao 0–0 Valencia** | 0 | No | Under | | 10 Feb 2022 | Copa del Rey | **Ath. Bilbao 1–1 Valencia** | 2 | Yes | Under | **At San Mamés (last 5):** Bilbao 2W · 3D · 0L **Under 2.5:** 4 of 5 meetings **BTTS No:** 3 of 5 meetings **Avg goals at this venue:** 1.6 per game **Valencia wins at Bilbao:** 0 in last 5 ## Market probability table | Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Match Result | Athletic Bilbao | Speculative | 1.74 | 58% | | Match Result | Draw | Avoid | 3.83 | 22% | | Match Result | Valencia | Avoid | 4.90 | 16% | | BTTS | No | Best Bet | 1.91 | 60% | | BTTS | Yes | Avoid | 1.90 | 40% | | Over/Under 2.5 | Under ⭐ | Best Bet | 1.88 | 63% | | Over/Under 2.5 | Over | Avoid | 1.93 | 37% | | Over/Under 1.5 | Over | Good Bet | 1.30 | 78% | | Over/Under 1.5 | Under | Avoid | 3.50 | 22% | | Over/Under 3.5 | Under | No Edge | 1.34 | 83% | | Over/Under 3.5 | Over | Avoid | 3.30 | 17% | | Match Cards 5+ | Yes | Good Bet | 1.57 | 65% | | Match Cards Under 5 | Yes | Avoid | — | 35% | | Corners Over/Under 9.5 | Over | No Edge | 1.90 | 48% | | Corners Over/Under 9.5 | Under | No Edge | 1.80 | 52% | Cards market uses the bookmaker threshold format — 5+ treated as Over 4.5 proxy. Under 3.5 Goals assessed at 83% but not published as a standalone tip due to overlap with the Under 2.5 Best Bet at materially lower odds. See accumulator notes. ## Betting tips 🟢 Best Bet 🟢 Best Bet — Very Strong Under 2.5 Goals Odds 1.88 Four of the last five times Valencia visited San Mamés, the total goals were 2 or fewer — including two 1-0 victories for Athletic and a goalless draw in May 2022. The sole exception was a 2-2 draw in October 2023. That pattern is reinforced by Valencia's current output on the road: just 3.00 shots on target per away game places them 19th in all of La Liga for road attacking production. Combined expected goals for this fixture project a total between 1.5 and 2.0. The model puts Under 2.5 at 63% against a fair probability of 50.7%, producing a value gap of +12.3%. **Confidence:** High **Value gap:** +12.3% **Model probability:** 63% 🟢 Best Bet BTTS — No Odds 1.91 The bookmaker has priced BTTS at near-even money (Yes 1.90, No 1.91), implying roughly 50/50 on whether Valencia score at San Mamés. Three of the last five meetings at this ground produced BTTS No — both 1-0 Athletic wins and the 0-0 draw all resulted in Valencia failing to score. Valencia's road shooting output is the lowest in La Liga at 3.00 SOT/game. Their own team Over 0.5 goals line in this fixture is priced at 1.59, implying only a 58% market probability that they score at all. Model probability for BTTS No: 60%, against a fair probability of 49.9%. Value gap: +10.1%. **Confidence:** High **Value gap:** +10.1% **Model probability:** 60% 🔵 Good Bet 🔵 Good Bet Over 1.5 Goals Odds 1.30 While this fixture trends low-scoring, a goalless match is unlikely given Athletic Bilbao's output at San Mamés. They generate 14 shots and 4.58 on target per game — an xG of 1.66 places them 6th in La Liga for attacking production. Only one of the five H2H meetings at this ground ended without at least two goals. With Athletic needing a win for European qualification, they will be positive from the start. Model at 78% against a fair probability of 72.9% produces a value gap of +5.1%. **Confidence:** Medium **Value gap:** +5.1% **Model probability:** 78% 🔵 Good Bet Match Cards — 5 or More Odds 1.57 ⚠️ Referee unconfirmed. A high-cards-per-game official strengthens this market; a lenient referee would narrow the edge. The 65% assessed probability uses the player booking data and fixture intensity as primary inputs given this uncertainty. Athletic Bilbao's midfield is the most card-prone in this fixture context — Ruiz de Galarreta leads their season tally with 10 yellow cards, Vivian follows with 9. The bookmaker's own 1st Half Cards 1+ line at 1.15 reflects a near-certain expectation of at least one early booking. A high-stakes match where Athletic need European points and Valencia are defending under pressure adds to the physical intensity. Model at 65% against a fair probability of 60.3% produces a value gap of +4.7%. **Confidence:** Low — referee pending **Value gap:** +4.7% **Model probability:** 65% 🟡 Speculative 🟡 Speculative Athletic Bilbao to Win Odds 1.74 Athletic Bilbao have not lost a single home match against Valencia in the last five San Mamés meetings, winning two and drawing three. Their statistical advantage is clear — 14 shots per game versus Valencia's 7.66, xG 1.66 versus 1.24. With European qualification on the line and a motivated crowd behind them, the home side has the stronger case. Model puts Athletic win at 58% against a fair probability of 55.3%, for a value gap of +2.7%. What makes this speculative: The H2H at San Mamés shows three draws in five meetings — Valencia's compact defensive approach has repeatedly held Athletic to a share of the points here. The gap is real but narrow at +2.7%. **Confidence:** Low **Value gap:** +2.7% **Model probability:** 58% ⚪ No Edge These markets were assessed and found to be fairly priced: Corners Over 9.5 @ 1.90 Model 48% vs fair 48.7%. Athletic dominate corner counts but Valencia's expected contribution keeps the total line near-balanced. Gap: −0.7%. Corners Under 9.5 @ 1.80 Model 52% vs fair 51.3%. Positive but below the 2% Speculative threshold. Gap: +0.7%. Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.34 Assessed at 83% with a large gap, but this is a nested subset of the Under 2.5 Best Bet at materially worse odds. Published here for awareness; see accumulator notes for recommended usage. ⛔ Avoid These markets are overpriced at current odds: Draw @ 3.83 Model 22% vs fair 25.1%. Athletic's European motivation and home shot dominance make a draw less likely than the market implies. Gap: −3.1%. Valencia Win @ 4.90 Model 16% vs fair 19.6%. Zero San Mamés wins in last 5 for Valencia; their away form reads 1W 1D 3L in last five games. Gap: −3.6%. BTTS Yes @ 1.90 Priced at near even money for Valencia to score, yet 3 of the 5 San Mamés meetings produced BTTS No. The 50/50 price significantly overstates Valencia's attacking probability on the road. Gap: −10.1%. Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.93 Model 37% vs fair 49.3%. H2H pattern (4 of 5 under 2.5 at Bilbao), Valencia's road SOT rate, and combined xG projection all point away from a high-scoring game. Gap: −12.3%. Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.50 Model 22% vs fair 27.1%. Athletic's shot volume makes a game with only one or zero goals unlikely. Gap: −5.1%. Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.30 Model 17% vs fair 28.9%. Four or more goals would be well above the expected total for this fixture. Gap: −11.9%. Match Cards Under 5 Model 35% vs implied complement ~40%. Two of Athletic's most yellow-card-prone players start, and both sides carry strong motivation. Gap: −4.7%. ## Accumulator builder notes Do not combine in the same accumulator BTTS No and Under 2.5 Goals are correlated outcomes — both are predictions of a low-scoring match. Stacking them concentrates the same underlying risk rather than diversifying it. Use one or the other in a multi. Conservative variant Under 3.5 Goals at 1.34 is assessed at 83% and works well as a safety leg in a high-stakes accumulator where protecting the slip matters more than maximising returns. It does not conflict with any of the positive verdicts in this analysis. Clean combination from this fixture Over 1.5 Goals (78%) and Under 2.5 Goals (63%) can be combined — a 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline satisfies both markets. This is the most internally consistent accumulator pairing available from this game. ## Conditional flags ⚠️ **Match Cards — Good Bet:** Referee not yet announced. The 65% assessed probability rests on player booking history (Ruiz de Galarreta 10 yellows, Vivian 9 yellows) and fixture intensity. A high-volume official strengthens this market; a lenient one narrows the edge. Confidence is set to Low pending the appointment. ℹ️ **Valencia attack:** Several Valencia players appear unavailable based on locked odds markets — Diakhaby, Foulquier, Santamaria and Núñez. The expected XI reflects these absences. If their forward line is further disrupted ahead of kick-off, the BTTS No case strengthens. ## Analysis confidence Overall Medium Odds parsing High Live research Active Referee Unconfirmed H2H data 5 meetings Anomalies flagged 2 Overall confidence is Medium. The two Best Bet picks rest on a strong and consistent evidence base — the H2H low-scoring pattern at San Mamés is established across five meetings, and Valencia's road attacking output is the weakest in the division by shots on target. The primary source of uncertainty is the unconfirmed referee, which directly affects the Cards Good Bet confidence rating. Two anomalies were flagged at pre-research stage: BTTS priced at 50/50 despite Valencia's poor road scoring record, and Over/Under 2.5 near-even money despite a clear 4/5 Under trend at this venue. **Responsible betting** — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the **National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP Nigeria)**. 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