Fulham sit 20th on 2 points from 6 and have not won a league game in their recent run, yet they remain dangerous going forward — they have scored in every home game. The worry is at the back: three conceded to Crystal Palace and three to Chelsea at Craven Cottage. Hull City, up from the Championship, have made a composed start — 8th on 9 points, with draws at Chelsea and against Everton and an away win at Coventry. The market still rates Fulham clear home favourites, around 56% on de-margined prices: the price already carries both the gap in squad depth and Fulham's shaky home form. The two meet in the top flight for the first time, and there are no midweek European commitments, so no rotation is factored in. The honest read is a favourite priced fairly against a visitor who travels well — which is why nothing here offers a standout edge.
Front line: Josh King leads the attack — the matchup to watch against a Hull back line that has conceded in most games.
Otherwise: Hull travel at close to full strength on the back of their strongest league start in years.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | Fulham | 2–0 | Hull City | No | 2 |
| Nov 2019 | Fulham | 0–3 | Hull City | No | 3 |
| Sep 2017 | Fulham | 2–1 | Hull City | Yes | 3 |
| Jan 2017 | Fulham | 4–1 | Hull City | Yes | 5 |
| Jan 2016 | Fulham | 0–1 | Hull City | No | 1 |
These are historic Championship and FA Cup meetings — the sides have not met in the top flight before, so the record is indicative only. Fulham have won four of the last five meetings across all venues, and both teams failed to score in every one of those five — a notably low-scoring-for-one-side fixture historically, even if the context has changed.
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/Under 1.5 | Over 1.5 | Solid Pick | 1.23 | 79% |
| Draw no bet | Fulham | Solid Pick | 1.32 | 73% |
| Hull City goals | Under 1.5 | Solid Pick | 1.34 | 72% |
| Over/Under 4.5 | Under 4.5 | Solid Pick | 1.18 | 83% |
| Team goals | Fulham over 0.5 | Speculative | 1.16 | 84% |
| Match result | Fulham win | No edge | 1.76 | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes | No edge | 1.75 | 55% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | No edge | 1.73 | 55% |
| Match result | Draw | No edge | 4.10 | 23% |
| Hull City clean sheet | Yes | Avoid | 5.10 | 16% |
| Over/Under 4.5 | Over 4.5 | Avoid | 5.10 | 17% |
| Draw no bet | Hull City | Avoid | 3.40 | 27% |
Our assessment puts this at 79%. Every one of Fulham's recent home games has produced at least two goals, and with a leaky home defence feeding the pattern, two or more in the game is a high-probability outcome. The price sits close to fair, so there is no mathematical edge — but this is a reliable leg for an accumulator.
Our assessment puts Fulham to win — with your stake back on a draw — at 73%. The home side rate as favourites on squad quality and hold a strong record against Hull, winning four of the last five meetings. The caveat is honest: Fulham are winless in the league of late, so the draw-no-bet safety net earns its place here rather than a straight home win.
Our assessment puts this at 72%. Hull have been tidy on the road — one goal at Newcastle, a blank in their win at Coventry — and rarely post more than one away from home. One goal or fewer from the visitors is the likely script. No edge in the price, but a dependable leg for a slip.
Our assessment puts Fulham to score at 84%, a shade ahead of the price — the thinnest of edges and the only one the match offers. Fulham have scored in every home game this season, so a home side finding the net against a defence beaten in most games is a strong bet.
Marginal edge on a short price. This is the same outcome as Hull City clean sheet — No; back one, not both.
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
The market is efficiently priced and our model sits close to it across the board, so no strong edge emerges — the value here is a set of reliable accumulator legs rather than a headline bet. Overall confidence is held at Medium for the small early-season sample. No official has been announced, which keeps bookings markets out of this analysis, and the two flagged anomalies are the correlated-market overlaps noted in the accumulator section.