Two of this season's promoted sides meet level on points: Hull City and Ipswich Town both sit on 10 points from 8 games, around 10th–12th and separated only by goal difference. The shape of the two teams could hardly be more different. Hull are unbeaten at the MKM — a win and three draws from four home games — defensively tight and low-scoring, with just eight goals in those four matches and two clean sheets. Ipswich carry more firepower but have been porous on the road, losing three of their last four away and conceding in all four, with those away games producing a remarkable 18 goals between them. A win nudges the victor toward the top half; defeat pulls the loser back toward the bottom three, only four points below. Both managers are expected to field close to their strongest available sides.
Expected XI: 5-4-1 — Tzolakis; Coyle, Ajayi, Egan, Herrington, Giles; Belloumi, Iroegbunam, Slater, Stroud; McBurnie
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Walton; Ouattara, O'Shea, Diop, Davis; Palacios, Florentino; Fatawu, Enciso, Philogene; Emersonn
| Date | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | Hull City | 0–2 | Ipswich | No | 2 |
| Apr 2024 | Hull City | 3–3 | Ipswich | Yes | 6 |
| Feb 2021 | Hull City | 0–1 | Ipswich | No | 1 |
| Sep 2018 | Hull City | 2–0 | Ipswich | No | 2 |
| Nov 2017 | Hull City | 2–2 | Ipswich | Yes | 4 |
Supplementary (all venues): Ipswich have won four of the last five meetings and kept a clean sheet in all four wins; Hull have not beaten them in the league since November 2020. Ipswich won both games last season, including 0–2 at the MKM. The longer record favours Hull (roughly 11 wins to 5 across the fixture's history), but the recent trend is firmly Ipswich.
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | Hull or Draw (1X) | Solid Pick | 1.47 | 66% |
| Over/Under 3.5 | Under 3.5 | Solid Pick | 1.42 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score | No | Good Bet | 2.20 | 52% |
| Match result | Draw | Speculative | 3.55 | 30% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Speculative | 2.05 | 52% |
| Total bookings O/U 4.5 | Over 4.5 | Speculative | 2.45 | 41% |
| Match result | Hull City | No edge | 2.69 | 36% |
| Match result | Ipswich Town | No edge | 2.73 | 34% |
| Double Chance | Draw or Ipswich (X2) | No edge | 1.48 | 64% |
| Draw No Bet | Hull City | No edge | 1.89 | 50% |
| Hull City team goals O/U 1.5 | Under 1.5 | No edge | 1.61 | 62% |
| Ipswich clean sheet | Yes | No edge | 3.50 | 28% |
| Total goals Odd/Even | Even | No edge | 1.84 | 52% |
| Away Win to Nil | Yes | No edge | 4.90 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes | Avoid | 1.68 | 48% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Avoid | 1.82 | 48% |
| Hull clean sheet | No | Avoid | 1.28 | 62% |
| Home Win to Nil | Yes | Avoid | 4.80 | 16% |
The read on this one is a tight, low-scoring home game: Hull are hard to beat at the MKM, and the fixture has a long history of clean sheets. The goals-under and clean-sheet angles below all express that same view at different prices — treat them as one pick, not several (see accumulator notes).
Both teams have failed to score in a clean sheet in four of the last five meetings, and Hull have kept two clean sheets in their four home games this season. Our assessment lands near 52% against a fair price around 43%, so the "No" is well overpriced at 2.20.
The counter-argument is real — Ipswich have scored in three of four away games and Hull aren't a prolific home side — which keeps this a Good Bet rather than higher.
Hull have drawn three of their four home games and the sides are level on points and closely matched. The priced draw sits near 28% against an assessment closer to 30%, and the neutral scoreline most models land on is 1–1.
A thin edge in a genuine three-way market. The lower-variance way to back Hull's home record is the Double Chance below.
Hull's home games have averaged just 2.0 goals and they defend well at the MKM. Our model puts Under 2.5 around 52% against a fair price near 47%.
What keeps this Speculative rather than stronger: Ipswich's away games have been wild (18 goals in four), so there is real over-risk if the game opens up. Correlated with the BTTS pick — one leg, not both.
Kirk averages well over four yellows a game across his EFL work, and this carries real relegation-scrap edge between two sides who need the points. Against a priced 37% for five-plus bookings, that points to value.
Referee variance and the limited Premier League sample keep confidence Low.
Hull are unbeaten at the MKM (one win, three draws) and Ipswich have lost three of their last four on the road. Our assessment puts Hull avoiding defeat near 66% — the bookmaker has this about right at 1.47, so there is no real edge, but it is a reliable leg for an accumulator.
Hull's home games rarely reach four goals, and the fixture averages three per game at the MKM. Our assessment puts Under 3.5 near 69% — priced fairly at 1.42, so no mathematical edge, but a dependable leg for a slip.
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Overall confidence is Medium. Odds parsing was clean across the main, goals, specials and bookings markets, and live research is current to the matchday. The low-scoring read leans on Hull's home solidity and the fixture's clean-sheet history, but carries one genuine contradiction — Ipswich's wild away games (18 goals in four) — which is why the goals-under markets land as Speculative and only the safest expressions earn a Solid Pick. Three anomalies were flagged: Hull's tight, low-scoring home profile against Ipswich's high-scoring away form; the split between Ipswich's strong head-to-head and poor current away record; and the referee's limited top-flight sample.