Leeds are third on 8 points from 4 games and still unbeaten, coming off a 4-1 win over Newcastle at Elland Road on Monday night. Crystal Palace sit 16th on 3 points, having lost 3 of their 4 league games. The detail that matters is where those losses came: the heavy ones were both at Selhurst Park, 1-4 to Manchester City and 2-3 to Ipswich. On the road Palace have won 3-2 at Fulham and lost 2-0 at Everton, so this is not a side that simply folds away from home. The sharper edge is the calendar — Palace host a European tie on Thursday night in south London, then travel north for a 14:00 Sunday kick-off, while Leeds have had six clear days since Monday with no fresh injury issues.
Expected XI: Close to the side that started Monday — Trafford in goal, Bogle and Gudmundsson wide, Stach, Tanaka and Ampadu through the middle, Calvert-Lewin and Okafor ahead of them.
Expected XI: A patched-up spine — Benítez or Matthews in goal with Henderson out, Richards and Canvot the senior centre-backs, Wharton and Hughes in midfield, Pino leading the line if Nketiah misses out.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2025 | Leeds United | 4–1 | Crystal Palace | Yes | 5 |
| 09 Apr 2023 | Leeds United | 1–5 | Crystal Palace | Yes | 6 |
| 30 Nov 2021 | Leeds United | 1–0 | Crystal Palace | No | 1 |
| 08 Feb 2021 | Leeds United | 2–0 | Crystal Palace | No | 2 |
| 24 Nov 2012 | Leeds United | 2–1 | Crystal Palace | Yes | 3 |
Those three figures are recency-weighted, so the December 2025 meeting carries four times the weight of the rest. Unweighted across all five it reads 60% both teams scoring, 3.4 goals a game and 60% over 2.5. Only one of the five meetings falls inside three years and the oldest is a Championship game from 2012, so the head-to-head sits here as supporting context rather than a lead signal. Leeds have won four of the five at home.
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Leeds United win | Good Bet | 1.84 | 58% |
| Match result | Draw | Avoid | 3.83 | 23% |
| Match result | Crystal Palace win | Avoid | 4.25 | 20% |
| Double chance | Leeds or draw | Speculative | 1.24 | 80% |
| Double chance | Leeds or Palace | Speculative | 1.28 | 77% |
| Double chance | Draw or Palace | Avoid | 1.92 | 42% |
| Draw no bet | Leeds United | Good Bet | 1.38 | 74% |
| Draw no bet | Crystal Palace | Avoid | 3.10 | 26% |
| Both teams to score | Yes | Speculative | 1.72 | 58% |
| Both teams to score | No | Avoid | 2.15 | 42% |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | Speculative | 1.22 | 82% |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | Avoid | 4.20 | 18% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | Speculative | 1.71 | 60% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | Avoid | 2.10 | 40% |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | No edge | 2.70 | 38% |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | Avoid | 1.44 | 62% |
| Total goals | Over 4.5 | No edge | 4.90 | 20% |
| Total goals | Under 4.5 | Avoid | 1.17 | 80% |
| Leeds United goals | Over 0.5 | Speculative | 1.17 | 86% |
| Leeds United goals | Under 0.5 | Avoid | 5.10 | 14% |
| Leeds United goals | Over 1.5 | Good Bet | 1.80 | 59% |
| Leeds United goals | Under 1.5 | Avoid | 2.00 | 41% |
| Leeds United goals | Over 2.5 | Speculative | 3.50 | 32% |
| Leeds United goals | Under 2.5 | Avoid | 1.31 | 68% |
| Crystal Palace goals | Over 0.5 | Solid Pick | 1.45 | 67% |
| Crystal Palace goals | Under 0.5 | Avoid | 2.75 | 33% |
| Crystal Palace goals | Over 1.5 | Avoid | 3.10 | 30% |
| Crystal Palace goals | Under 1.5 | Solid Pick | 1.37 | 70% |
| Leeds United clean sheet | Yes | Avoid | 2.70 | 33% |
| Leeds United clean sheet | No | Solid Pick | 1.43 | 67% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | Yes | Avoid | 4.80 | 14% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | No | Speculative | 1.16 | 86% |
| Leeds United to win to nil | Yes | Avoid | 3.33 | 28% |
| Leeds United to win to nil | No | Solid Pick | 1.33 | 72% |
| Crystal Palace to win to nil | Yes | Avoid | 7.40 | 8% |
| Crystal Palace to win to nil | No | Good Bet | 1.09 | 92% |
| First half both teams to score | Yes | No edge | 4.25 | 23% |
| First half both teams to score | No | Avoid | 1.23 | 77% |
| Second half both teams to score | Yes | Speculative | 3.30 | 32% |
| Second half both teams to score | No | Avoid | 1.34 | 68% |
| First half Leeds United clean sheet | Yes | No edge | 1.53 | 62% |
| First half Leeds United clean sheet | No | Avoid | 2.40 | 38% |
| First half Crystal Palace clean sheet | Yes | Avoid | 2.05 | 41% |
| First half Crystal Palace clean sheet | No | Good Bet | 1.71 | 59% |
| Leeds United to score in both halves | Yes | Good Bet | 2.60 | 39% |
| Leeds United to score in both halves | No | Avoid | 1.42 | 61% |
| Crystal Palace to score in both halves | Yes | Avoid | 4.50 | 18% |
| Crystal Palace to score in both halves | No | Speculative | 1.15 | 82% |
Leeds have scored 12 goals across their last five home games and 4 past Newcastle on Monday. Palace concede 2.0 a game on the road and line up with their third-choice centre-back pairing in front of a reserve goalkeeper. We assess this at 59% where the price sits at 53% — the biggest edge on the card.
Four wins and a draw in their last five at Elland Road, and four wins from the last five meetings with Palace on this ground. Add six days of rest against a side playing a European tie on Thursday night and we make this 58% where the price sits at 52%.
The same call with the stalemate taken out. Leeds have not lost a league game this season and have dropped points at home only once. We assess this at 74% where the price sits at 69%.
For this to lose, Palace have to win at Elland Road and keep Leeds out with a reshaped back line. Leeds have scored in all four league games and in each of their last five at home. We assess this at 92% where the price sits at 87%. Small odds, so treat it as a filler leg rather than a standalone bet.
Leeds scored in both halves against Newcastle and have been scoring in bunches rather than nicking single goals at home. Against a tired, reshuffled Palace defence we assess a repeat at 39% where the price sits at 35%.
Leeds to score before the break. They scored three times inside 14 first-half minutes on Monday, and our first-half model has them finding the net before half-time 59% of the time where the price sits at 55%.
Leeds to score at all. They have found the net in every league game and in all five of their last home matches. We assess this at 86% where the price sits at 81%.
The same outcome is priced twice on the card — it also sits as Crystal Palace clean sheet "No" at 1.16. Take the 1.17, it is the same bet for a bigger number.
Leeds have hit three or more twice in their last five at home. We assess this at 32% where the price sits at 27%.
A one-in-three shot at a decent price, but it needs Leeds to keep pushing after they are in front — which they did not do against Brentford.
Our expected total is 3.10 goals against the 2.80 in the price, and the five Elland Road meetings between these two average 3.4. We assess this at 60% where the price sits at 55%.
Goals markets have to clear a higher bar in this engine before they earn a firm tip, and this one lands just short of it.
Two goals or more in the game. Four of the last five Elland Road meetings cleared this line. We assess it at 82% where the price sits at 78%.
Leeds have not lost a league game this season. We assess them avoiding defeat at 80% where the price sits at 76%.
Same bet family as the match result and draw no bet picks. One of the three on your slip, not all three.
Anything but the draw. Palace have not drawn a league game all season — one win and three losses — and Leeds have won three of their last four at home. We assess a result either way at 77% where the price sits at 74%.
Palace have scored second-half goals in three of their four league games and Leeds added two after the break on Monday. We assess this at 32% where the price sits at 29%.
Needs both teams to score in the same 45 minutes, which is a lot of conditions for one leg.
Palace have scored in three of four league games and got three at Fulham without their main striker. Three of the last five meetings at Elland Road saw both teams score. We assess this at 58% where the price sits at 56%.
Palace have managed 6 goals in 4 league games and have lost their main striker. Scoring in both halves at a ground where Leeds have conceded twice in five games assesses at 18%, so the No side comes out at 82% where the price sits at 80%.
Our assessment puts Palace scoring at 67% — a high-confidence outcome. They have scored in three of their four league games including three at Fulham. The price is close to right so there is no real edge, but it is a steady leg. The same outcome sits as Leeds United clean sheet "No" at 1.43; take the 1.45.
Our assessment puts this at 72%. Leeds are likely to win, but shutting Palace out completely is a different ask against a side that has scored in three of four. Fairly priced, and a reliable leg.
Our assessment puts Palace being held to one goal or fewer at 70%. Leeds have conceded 2 goals in their last five home games. No edge in the price, but a dependable leg for a slip.
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge either way:
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Odds were read straight from the market card, so the pricing side of this analysis is exact, and home and away form splits are drawn from the last five games for each side. The head-to-head is the weak link: five meetings at Elland Road, only one of them inside three years, so it supports the read rather than driving it. League-season sample size is the other limit — four games each, which is why our rates are regressed heavily toward league average and why the strongest call lands at Good Bet rather than Best Bet.