Arsenal arrive top of the table and, across the season, the division's meanest defence — but they travel to Anfield without their leading scorer and their first-choice centre-back, and their recent away form has been bumpier than the headline numbers: beaten 3–0 at Brighton and made to concede at Ipswich and in Munich. Liverpool sit fourth and come in on a five-match winning run, scoring heavily along the way, and they have not lost to Arsenal at Anfield in any of their last four meetings. Both sides played in midweek — Liverpool through their cup tie, Arsenal out of theirs — with close to full-strength league line-ups expected, so rotation risk is low. The market makes Arsenal the favourite; the home record, the run of form and those two absences are why our read leans the other way.
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Barcola, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Raya; Timber, Konsa, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Guimaraes; Madueke, Odegaard, Eze; Havertz
| Date | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.08.25 | Liverpool | 1–0 | Arsenal | No | 1 |
| 11.05.25 | Liverpool | 2–2 | Arsenal | Yes | 4 |
| 23.12.23 | Liverpool | 1–1 | Arsenal | Yes | 2 |
| 09.04.23 | Liverpool | 2–2 | Arsenal | Yes | 4 |
Supplementary (all venues): across the last five meetings, including a 2024 pre-season friendly won 2–1 by Liverpool, the home side have not been beaten by Arsenal. "Liverpool or Draw" has landed in all four competitive Anfield meetings above.
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | My Assessment | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Liverpool or Draw | Good Bet | 66% | 1.56 |
| Draw no bet | Liverpool | Good Bet | 54% | 2.10 |
| Match result | Liverpool win | Good Bet | 39% | 2.98 |
| Team goals | Liverpool to score | Solid Pick | 73% | 1.33 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Speculative | 55% | 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | No | No edge | 47% | 2.20 |
| Match result | Draw | No edge | 27% | 3.51 |
| Match result | Arsenal win | Avoid | 34% | 2.44 |
| Double chance | Arsenal or Draw | Avoid | 61% | 1.40 |
| Over/Under 1.5 | Over 1.5 | Avoid | 71% | 1.26 |
| Team goals | Arsenal to score | Avoid | 69% | 1.26 |
Liverpool have not lost to Arsenal at Anfield in their last four meetings (one win, three draws), they arrive on a five-match winning run, and Arsenal travel without both their leading scorer and their first-choice centre-back. The market still prices Arsenal as favourite, which leaves the home side's "not to lose" line generous: we make Liverpool or Draw 66% against a fair price near 60%. In those four Anfield meetings, this selection landed every time.
The higher-return version of the same call, with your stake back if it ends level. We make Liverpool 54% to win once the draw is removed, against a fair price near 45%. It clears our Best Bet value threshold on the numbers, but we hold it at Good Bet because it means backing the home side against a market that still favours Arsenal — and because it is the same opinion as the double chance above. Pick one of the two, not both.
Our assessment puts this at 73% — a high-confidence outcome. Liverpool have scored in almost every home game this season and are in free-scoring form. The price is fair, so there is no mathematical edge here, but it is a reliable leg for your accumulator if you want a steady addition to the slip.
Our model lands just under the 2.5 line, helped by both sides missing a main creator and Arsenal's season-long defensive strength. We make Under 2.5 about 55% against a fair price near 48% — a small lean rather than a strong one.
Treat with caution: two of the last four meetings at Anfield finished 2–2, and both teams have been scoring freely. This is a low-confidence add, not a core pick.
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Confidence is medium. Our match-total read sits close to the market, so the goals markets come out broadly fair — the two recent 2–2 draws in this fixture at Anfield are a live reminder it can open up. The clearer lean is on the result: the home side's unbeaten run against Arsenal at Anfield across the last four meetings, their current form, and Arsenal missing both a first-choice attacker and defender tilt the result markets toward Liverpool more than the price allows. The one flagged item is that result-line disagreement with the market.