Liverpool vs Brentford Predicctions - May 24, 2026

Written by betCompare Editor | May 23, 2026 9:10:40 PM

Premier League Matchday 38 Anfield, Liverpool Final day of season

Liverpool vs Brentford

Sunday, 24 May 2026 · Kick-off: 17:00 WAT (16:00 BST)

🟢 Live Web Search: Active — all research data current as of 23 May 2026

Match context

Liverpool sit 5th on 59 points entering the final matchday — a draw guarantees Champions League qualification via the top-five finish, and they could even qualify with a loss depending on other results. Brentford sit 9th on 52 points, level with Chelsea (8th) and two behind Brighton (7th), and need a win plus favourable results elsewhere to clinch a European place (likely Conference or Europa League). The motivation profile is asymmetric: Liverpool are largely secured and Anfield will be staging Salah and Robertson farewell ceremonies with mosaics planned, while Brentford must win to reach Europe. Slot is expected to field a strong XI despite the ceremonial occasion.

Team news & expected lineups

Liverpool

OutConor Bradley — knee

OutHugo Ekitike — Achilles (season)

OutGiovanni Leoni — knee

OutWataru Endo — foot

DoubtAlisson — fitness

DoubtJeremie Frimpong — hamstring

DoubtAlexander Isak — fitness

Expected XI (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Szoboszlai, Konaté, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Wirtz, Ngumoha; Gakpo

Brentford

OutFabio Carvalho — knee

OutAntoni Milambo — knee

OutRico Henry — thigh

NoteJordan Henderson returns to Anfield (former Liverpool captain)

Expected XI (4-2-3-1): Kelleher; Kayode, Van den Berg, Collins, Lewis-Potter; Jensen, Yarmolyuk; Schade, Damsgaard, Ouattara; Igor Thiago

Market impact: Alisson's fitness is the highest-leverage variable for clean-sheet markets. Brentford's attacking unit (Schade, Thiago, Damsgaard) plus their need for Europe pushes the contest open, though their road profile this season is poor. Henderson's emotional return to Anfield raises the temperature on cards markets.

Referee intelligence

Referee Darren England

Classification Medium-High

Cards profile 4.55 YC/match (PL 25/26)

Implication Last 5 matches averaged 5.8 total cards — supports Over cards lines.

Recent FA Cup final official. Liverpool's record under England is unremarkable (W4 D3 L3 across 10 matches). VARs: Tony Harrington and Adrian Holmes.

Form & head-to-head

Liverpool — Last 5 home (all comps)

D 1–1 Chelsea W 3–1 Palace L 0–2 PSG W 2–0 Fulham W 4–0 Galatasaray

Three wins from last five at Anfield (3W 1D 1L), with the only home defeat coming against PSG in the Champions League. Premier League home record across this run is strong — 2W 1D, six goals scored, two conceded.

Brentford — Last 5 away (all comps)

L 0–3 Man City L 1–2 Man Utd D 0–0 Leeds L 2–3 West Ham (FAC) D 0–0 Bournemouth

Zero wins from last five away (0W 2D 3L). Brentford have failed to score in three of those five away trips and conceded three goals on two separate occasions against top opposition. Road form is a real concern heading into Anfield.

Head-to-head — Liverpool dominant at Anfield Last 5 meetings vs Brentford

▸25 Aug 2024: Liverpool 2–0 Brentford

▸12 Nov 2023: Liverpool 3–0 Brentford

▸06 May 2023: Liverpool 1–0 Brentford

▸16 Jan 2022: Liverpool 3–0 Brentford

▸Brentford have failed to score in every one of the last 5 visible meetings vs Liverpool. Liverpool have won all 5 and kept a clean sheet in all 5.

▸Goals per game across these 5 meetings: 2.0 average — tightly clustered between 1 and 3.

Tips & value assessments

Market Outcome Verdict Odds My assessment

Match result (1X2) Liverpool 🟢 Best Bet 1.85 Liverpool have won all 5 visible H2H meetings without conceding. Anfield form is strong (3W in last 5 home), Brentford have zero wins in their last 5 on the road and failed to score in 3 of them. The motivation gap doesn't override the quality and venue gap.

Liverpool team goals Over 1.5 🔵 Good Bet 1.59 Liverpool scored 2+ in 4 of their last 5 home games and have hit 2+ in 4 of the last 5 H2H vs Brentford. Salah's historic record vs the Bees and the farewell atmosphere reinforce the home scoring case.

Away clean sheet No 🔵 Good Bet 1.11 Liverpool have scored in 4 of last 5 home games; Brentford concede regularly on the road (8 conceded in last 4 away games). Short price but the underlying case is comfortable.

Home clean sheet Yes 🟡 Speculative 3.33 Liverpool kept a clean sheet in all 5 visible H2H meetings, and Brentford have failed to score in 3 of last 5 away. Conditional on Alisson starting — drops to a coin-flip if Kelleher deputises.

Cards Over 3.5 🟡 Speculative 1.91 Darren England's recent 5-match average (5.8 cards), Brentford's physical style, and Henderson's emotional return point Over. A meaningful value gap is plausible at this price.

Bookings 1X2 Away (Brentford most booked) 🟡 Speculative 1.59 Brentford's high-tempo, physical pressing style typically produces more bookings, and the odds already reflect this. Lean rather than strong edge.

Win to nil Liverpool 🟡 Speculative 4.00 Pure correlation play of Match Result + Home Clean Sheet. The H2H pattern (5/5 Liverpool wins to nil in visible meetings) supports it, but the price prices in much of that edge already.

Double chance 1X (Liverpool or Draw) ⚪ No Edge 1.26 Safe outcome but the implied probability leaves no meaningful margin given Liverpool's position. Backing Liverpool straight up is the better expression.

Corners Over 10.5 ⚪ No Edge 1.91 Liverpool typically dominate territorially at Anfield, but the price already reflects that. Fair, not a value play.

Total goals Over 2.5 ⛔ Avoid 1.48 Last 5 H2H averaged just 2.0 goals per game. Brentford scoreless in 3 of last 5 away. The "open game" narrative doesn't match the venue-matched evidence.

BTTS Yes ⛔ Avoid 1.49 Brentford have not scored against Liverpool in any of the last 5 visible meetings, and have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games. The market price misreads the H2H and venue trend.

Accumulator builder notes

Correlated home double Leg 1: Liverpool to win @ 1.85 Leg 2: Liverpool Over 1.5 team goals @ 1.59 Same-game correlated play. If a "Home win & Over 2.5 home team goals" combo exists, that may price more cleanly — but the two-leg combo here aligns the strongest signals. Approx. raw combo: ~2.94

Cards-thematic triple Leg 1: Liverpool to win @ 1.85 Leg 2: Over 3.5 cards @ 1.91 Leg 3: Brentford most booked @ 1.59 Three independent angles — outcome, total cards, and team bookings — built around the referee and stakes profile. Approx. raw acca: ~5.62

Conditional flags

⚠️ Liverpool rotation risk: if Slot starts a heavily rotated XI for the Salah/Robertson farewell occasion (multiple academy starts beyond Ngumoha), the Liverpool Win and Liverpool Over 1.5 team-goal lines weaken meaningfully. A full-strength XI keeps both verdicts intact.

⚠️ Alisson fitness: the Home Clean Sheet Speculative tip and the Win to Nil play both depend on Alisson starting. If Kelleher or a reserve deputises, downgrade both and lean Away Clean Sheet No instead.

ℹ️ Champions League race results elsewhere: Liverpool's stakes shift if Chelsea, Aston Villa or City results on the day already secure or threaten the top-5 spot before kick-off. A "secured before kick-off" scenario raises rotation risk; a "must-win" scenario raises Liverpool engagement.

ℹ️ Pre-match emotion: Salah and Robertson farewell ceremonies, mosaics, and Henderson's Anfield return create an unusually emotional atmosphere. Historically these tilt toward higher tempo and more cards, but Liverpool's professionalism at Anfield vs Brentford has been ruthless across the visible H2H sample.

Analysis confidence

Overall High

Odds parsing High

Live research Active

Referee Confirmed

H2H sample 5 meetings

Lineups Pending

Confidence is high. The H2H sample is unusually consistent (Liverpool clean sheet wins in all 5 visible meetings), the venue-matched form picture supports the home side, and Brentford's away profile this season weakens any "must-win travels well" narrative. The single live variable is Liverpool's rotation level for the farewell occasion — material enough to be flagged, not material enough to invert the verdicts.

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