Match context
Newcastle sit 7th on 4 points after a 2–2 draw with Liverpool and a 2–0 win at Tottenham — unbeaten in competitive football under new head coach Matthias Jaissle and on the scoresheet in every game. Bournemouth are 15th on 1 point, still chasing a first win under Marco Rose after a 2–1 loss at Manchester City and a 1–1 home draw with Everton, having conceded inside the closing stages in both. An international break follows this round, so neither side carries midweek fatigue and no rotation risk is identified.
Team news
Newcastle United
Out Dan Burn (Defender) — targeted return mid-September
Out Joelinton (Midfielder)
Out William Osula (Forward)
Doubtful Valentino Livramento (Full-back) — calf
Expected XI: 4-3-3 — Thiaw, Botman and Hall across the back; Willock, Miley and González in midfield; Elanga, Wissa and Barnes ahead.
Bournemouth
Out None reported
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Smith, Hill, A. Silva and Truffert; Cook and Scott; Rayan, Kluivert and Tavernier behind Evanilson.
Newcastle's absences (Burn, Joelinton) slightly soften their defensive and midfield base, but at home to a winless side the market still rates them favourites — the missing names do not move any verdict tier.
Referee intelligence
Referee Not announced Appointment still to come
Classification Not available until named
Cards confidence Low
Implication With no referee named yet, we're not tipping bookings or cards this week.
Form & head-to-head
Head-to-head — Newcastle at home (last 5 meetings)
| Date |
Home |
Score |
Away |
BTTS |
Goals |
| 18 Apr 2026 |
Newcastle |
1–2 |
Bournemouth |
Yes |
3 |
| 10 Jan 2026 |
Newcastle |
3–3 |
Bournemouth |
Yes |
6 |
| 18 Jan 2025 |
Newcastle |
1–4 |
Bournemouth |
Yes |
5 |
| 17 Feb 2024 |
Newcastle |
2–2 |
Bournemouth |
Yes |
4 |
| 20 Dec 2022 |
Newcastle |
1–0 |
Bournemouth |
No |
1 |
St James' Park BTTS rate: 80% Avg goals: 3.8/game Over 2.5 rate: 80% Newcastle: scored in all 5 here
Market probability table — key markets
| Market |
Outcome |
Verdict |
Odds |
My Assessment |
| Total goals |
Over 1.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.18 |
83% |
| Newcastle goals |
Over 0.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.17 |
82% |
| Newcastle win to nil |
No |
Solid Pick |
1.20 |
81% |
| Bournemouth goals |
Over 0.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.27 |
75% |
| Double chance |
Newcastle or Bournemouth |
Solid Pick |
1.30 |
74% |
| Double chance |
Newcastle or Draw |
Solid Pick |
1.36 |
70% |
| Total goals |
Under 3.5 |
No edge |
1.60 |
62% |
| Both teams to score |
Yes |
No edge |
1.51 |
63% |
| Total goals |
Over 2.5 |
No edge |
1.59 |
61% |
| Draw no bet |
Newcastle |
No edge |
1.61 |
60% |
| Asian handicap +0.5 |
Bournemouth +0.5 |
No edge |
1.70 |
56% |
| Odd / even |
Even |
No edge |
1.83 |
53% |
| Newcastle goals |
Over 1.5 |
No edge |
1.83 |
52% |
| Match result |
Newcastle win |
No edge |
2.24 |
44% |
| Total goals |
Under 2.5 |
No edge |
2.45 |
40% |
| Bournemouth goals |
Over 1.5 |
No edge |
2.25 |
41% |
| Match result |
Bournemouth win |
No edge |
3.28 |
30% |
| Both teams to score |
No |
No edge |
2.60 |
37% |
| Match result |
Draw |
No edge |
3.73 |
26% |
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Betting tips
🎯 Solid Picks — steady legs, fairly priced
🎯
Solid Pick Total goals — Over 1.5
Odds 1.18
Our model puts this at 83%. Each of the last four meetings here produced at least three goals, and both teams have found the net freely this season. The price is fair, so there is no mathematical edge — but this is the steadiest single leg for a slip.
🎯
Solid Pick Newcastle to score (Over 0.5)
Odds 1.17
Newcastle have scored in every competitive game this season and in all five of these home meetings; we assess this at 82%. Correctly priced by the market, but a dependable leg for a same-game or multi-game slip.
🎯
Solid Pick Bournemouth to score (Over 0.5)
Odds 1.27
Bournemouth have scored in each of their last four meetings at St James' Park; our read is 75%. Fairly priced — use it as an alternative goals leg, not stacked on top of the others.
🎯
Solid Pick Double chance — Newcastle or Draw
Odds 1.36
Newcastle are unbeaten in competitive games under Jaissle, and our 26% draw / 30% Bournemouth-win read leaves this at 70%. No edge at the price, but a steady result-based leg if you would rather avoid the goals angle.
⚪ No Edge
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — the obvious goals angle is real, but the price already reflects it, so there is no value to chase:
Both teams to score — Yes @ 1.51 Both sides scored in four of the last five here, but at 1.51 the price already matches our 63% read — fair, no edge.
Total goals — Over 2.5 @ 1.59 Our 61% read sits right on the price; the goals lean is genuine but fully baked in.
Match result — Newcastle win @ 2.24 Our 44% read matches the price; a fair line with nothing to exploit either way.
Draw no bet — Newcastle @ 1.61 60% on our numbers against a 59% price — fairly valued, no meaningful gap.
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Accumulator builder notes
Equivalent markets Newcastle to score (Over 0.5) @ 1.17 is the same outcome as Bournemouth clean sheet — No @ 1.16; Bournemouth to score @ 1.27 equals Newcastle clean sheet — No @ 1.26; and Both Teams to Score — Yes @ 1.51 is the same event as Teams to Score — Both @ 1.45. In each pair, take the longer price and never back both — that only doubles your stake on one outcome without adding value.
Steady leg The reliable legs here mostly express one view — a goals-filled game in which Newcastle avoid defeat. Over 1.5 goals (83%), Newcastle to score (82%), Bournemouth to score (75%) and Both Teams to Score all lean on goals; Newcastle or Draw (70%) leans on the result. Take just ONE leg from this fixture for your slip — stacking two goal-based legs on the same slip is correlated exposure, not extra return. Steadiest single leg: Over 1.5 goals @ 1.18.
Conditional flags
ℹ️ No referee has been named for this fixture yet, so bookings and cards markets are left uncalled this week.
ℹ️ Livramento is a game-time call after a calf issue; the expected XIs reflect the latest team news.
Analysis confidence
Overall Medium
Odds parsing High
Live research Active
Referee Not announced
H2H data 5 meetings
Anomalies 0 flagged
Confidence is held at Medium this early in the season — two league games is a small sample, so no market earns a High-confidence tier. Odds parsing is clean and the venue-matched head-to-head is a full five-game set. With no referee named yet, bookings and cards markets are left uncalled.
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Lottery Regulatory Commission (NLRC).