Match context
Alavés sit 18th on 33 points from 32 matches — inside the relegation zone on goal difference, with 6 games remaining. A win here would move them to 36 points and potentially out of the drop zone depending on results elsewhere; failure to win leaves them in immediate danger. Mallorca are one point ahead in 15th on 34 points from 31 matches, making this a direct six-pointer where every point is existential for both clubs. Mallorca arrive having won 3 of their last 4 overall, but their away record is the worst in La Liga: 1 win, 3 draws and 11 losses on the road all season (0.38 points per away game). No rotation risk for either side — these are the stakes both managers have been preparing for.
Team news
Deportivo Alavés
OutCarlos Benadidez — muscle injury
DoubtCarlos Protesoni — fitness
BackAbde Rebbach — returns from suspension
Expected XI (4-1-4-1): Sivera; Jonny Otto, Tenaglia, Pacheco, Parada; Blanco; Vicente, Ibáñez, Aleñá, Rebbach; T. Martínez
RCD Mallorca
OutJan Salas — injury
OutMateo Joseph — injury
OutAntonio Raillo — injury
OutLucas Bergstrom — injury
DoubtZito Luvumbo — fitness
DoubtMarash Kumbulla — fitness
Expected XI (4-4-2): Leo Román; Maffeo, Valjent, Mascarell, Mojica; Darder, Morlanes, Samu, P. Torre; Asano, Muriqi
Mallorca are without first-choice centre-back Raillo — a notable defensive absence for a side already struggling away from home. Alavés have Rebbach back from suspension, adding directness and width to their attack.
Referee intelligence
Appointment TBC Not yet confirmed
La Liga avg cards 4.7 per match (2025/26)
Alavés avg cards 2.6 per match this season
Mallorca avg cards 2.8 per match this season
Fixture intensity: High — a direct relegation battle, one point separating these sides. Combined team card average of 5.4 per match provides a solid data anchor for the bookings markets. Samú Costa (Mallorca, 9 cards this season) and Antonio Blanco (Alavés) are the most frequently booked players for their respective sides.
Form & head-to-head
Head-to-head — Alavés home (venue-matched, primary)
| Date |
Competition |
Home |
Score |
Away |
BTTS |
| 01 Nov 2024 |
La Liga |
Alavés |
1 – 0 |
Mallorca |
No |
| 24 Feb 2024 |
La Liga |
Alavés |
1 – 1 |
Mallorca |
Yes |
| 21 Aug 2021 |
La Liga |
Alavés |
0 – 1 |
Mallorca |
No |
| 29 Sep 2019 |
La Liga |
Alavés |
2 – 0 |
Mallorca |
No |
| 28 Nov 2015 |
Segunda |
Alavés |
1 – 0 |
Mallorca |
No |
Alavés home record vs Mallorca: 3W 1D 1L BTTS rate (home H2H): 1 of 5 meetings (20%) Under 2.5 rate (home H2H): 4 of 5 meetings (80%) Average goals in 5 home H2H: 1.4 per game
Market probability table
| Market |
Outcome |
Verdict |
Odds |
My assessment |
| Match result (1X2) · Margin 5.3% |
| 1X2 |
Alavés win |
No Edge |
2.24 |
Home form competitive but only 26% win rate all season. Close to fair probability. |
| 1X2 |
Draw |
Speculative |
3.20 |
Alavés have drawn 3 of their last 4 La Liga matches. Under-pressure sides often share spoils. Slim value at 3.20. |
| 1X2 |
Mallorca win |
Avoid |
3.83 |
4 losses in last 5 away. No away win since September 2025. Backed by no evidence at any price. |
| Over/Under goals |
| O/U 2.5 |
Under 2.5 |
Best Bet |
1.69 |
4 of 5 Alavés home H2H vs Mallorca ended under 2.5 (avg 1.4 goals). Mallorca scored 3 goals in last 5 away. Alavés concede 0.89 per home game. Strongest evidenced market. |
| O/U 2.5 |
Over 2.5 |
Avoid |
2.25 |
H2H record and Mallorca's away scoring record firmly oppose this. No case to make. |
| O/U 1.5 |
Over 1.5 |
No Edge |
1.39 |
Both sides likely to produce at least one combined goal. Close to fair, no meaningful edge. |
| O/U 1.5 |
Under 1.5 |
No Edge |
3.10 |
Plausible given Mallorca's scoring drought away but a step further than the data confidently supports. |
| Both teams to score (GG/NG) |
| GG/NG |
No (NG) |
Good Bet |
1.88 |
Only 1 of 5 Alavés home H2H vs Mallorca ended with BTTS (20%). Mallorca failed to score in 2 of last 5 away games. Alavés 40% home clean sheet rate. Assessed probability 60–65% for NG. |
| GG/NG |
Yes (GG) |
Avoid |
1.93 |
Near-even odds don't reflect the structural evidence against Mallorca scoring away in this fixture. |
| Cards |
| Match cards |
5+ bookings |
Good Bet |
1.39 |
High-intensity relegation six-pointer. Combined team card average 5.4 per match — above La Liga norm of 4.7. Assessed probability 70–75% aligns with 1.39 implied of 71.9%. |
| Match cards |
6+ bookings |
Speculative |
1.79 |
Possible given the stakes but referee appointment reduces certainty below Good Bet threshold. |
| Double chance |
| Double chance |
Home or Draw (1X) |
No Edge |
1.29 |
Margin too compressed for meaningful value at 1.29. |
| Double chance |
Draw or Away (X2) |
Avoid |
1.65 |
Including Mallorca in any combination is not justified given their away record — even at 1.65. |
| Corners |
| Corners 1X2 |
Home (Alavés) |
No Edge |
1.38 |
Home sides win corner count in majority of La Liga games. Reasonable but thin value. |
| Corners O/U 8.5 |
Over 8.5 |
No Edge |
1.44 |
La Liga average (~9.8) supports but cautious low-scoring matches often produce fewer corners. |
Markets not covered in this analysis
| Market |
Status |
Reason |
| Anytime / first goalscorer |
No odds available |
Players tab contained no named player odds in submitted data |
| Individual player card markets |
No odds available |
Not visible in submitted data |
Betting tips
🟢 Best Bet
🟢
Best Bet Under 2.5 Goals
Odds 1.69
Four of the five Alavés home meetings against Mallorca in the H2H data ended under 2.5 goals, averaging just 1.4 goals per game in this fixture. Mallorca scored only 3 goals across their last 5 away La Liga games and have not won away since September 2025. Alavés concede an average of 0.89 goals per home game this season, and their recent form is dominated by low-scoring draws — three of their last four La Liga matches ended 2-2 or 1-1. The odds of 1.69 imply 59.2% probability; the assessed probability from H2H and current form data sits at 68–72%.
🔵 Good Bet
🔵
Good Bet GG/NG — No (NG)
Odds 1.88
Both teams scored in only 1 of the 5 available Alavés home meetings against Mallorca (20%). Mallorca failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away La Liga games, netting just 3 times in those 5 matches combined. Alavés kept at least 7 clean sheets at home this season — a 40% clean sheet rate. The market prices GG/NG close to evens (1.93/1.88), which overstates the probability of Mallorca scoring given the evidence. Assessed probability for NG: 60–65%.
🔵
Good Bet Match Cards — 5+ Bookings
Odds 1.39
A direct relegation six-pointer generates physical intensity that typically pushes bookings above the La Liga norm. Alavés average 2.6 bookings per match and Mallorca 2.8 — a combined average of 5.4, versus the league norm of 4.7. At 1.39, the implied probability is 71.9%, sitting within the assessed range of 70–75% derived from the combined card averages.
🟡 Speculative
Alavés have drawn 3 of their last 4 La Liga matches and cannot win in 9 consecutive games across all competitions. Their coach Sánchez Flores is yet to win in 5 games in charge. Mallorca will sit deep and try to frustrate on the road. The bookmaker's implied probability is 31.25%; the assessed probability sits at 33–36%, representing slim but present value at these odds.
Do not combine with Under 2.5 in the same accumulator — they are structurally related outcomes that share the same underlying conditions, not independent selections.
⚪ No Edge
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
1X2 — Alavés win @ 2.24 Competitive at home but 26% win rate. Close to fair value.
O/U 1.5 — Over @ 1.39 Likely but margin too thin for a clear edge.
O/U 1.5 — Under @ 3.10 Plausible but a step beyond what the data confidently supports.
Double chance — 1X @ 1.29 Odds compressed too far for any meaningful return.
Match cards — 6+ @ 1.79 Possible given the stakes; referee TBC reduces certainty to below Good Bet.
Corners 1X2 — Home @ 1.38 Home sides win corner count in most La Liga games. Thin margin only.
Corners O/U 8.5 — Over @ 1.44 League average supports but cautious matches often produce fewer corners.
⛔ Avoid
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
1X2 — Mallorca win @ 3.83 4 losses in last 5 away La Liga games. No away win since September 2025.
O/U 2.5 — Over @ 2.25 4 of 5 home H2H ended under 2.5. Mallorca scored 3 goals in last 5 away games.
GG/NG — Yes @ 1.93 H2H BTTS only 20%. Mallorca failed to score in 2 of last 5 away. Near-even odds do not reflect this.
Double chance — X2 @ 1.65 Mallorca's away record makes their inclusion in any combination unjustifiable at this price.
Accumulator builder notes
Banker leg Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.69 is the most evidenced selection in this analysis. Use as an anchor leg in a multi-match accumulator. Consistent with Mallorca's away scoring record and the low-scoring draw profile Alavés have been producing.
Equivalent markets Under 2.5 Goals and NG (No BTTS) are structurally linked — a NG result guarantees Under 2.5. Do not combine both in the same accumulator; they are the same underlying outcome and provide no selection diversification.
Combination to avoid Under 2.5 and Draw are compatible results — a 1-1 or 0-0 satisfies both — but backing both from the same match reduces the independence of your legs. Select one or the other, not both in the same slip.
Conditional flags
⚠️ Referee not confirmed. Cards market tips (5+ bookings) carry dependence on the officiating appointment. Some La Liga referees average well below 5 cards per game — verify the appointment before placing.
⚠️ Mallorca injury doubts (Luvumbo, Kumbulla). If Luvumbo starts, Mallorca's attacking directness away increases — the NG selection becomes marginally less certain. Reassess if confirmed in the starting XI.
ℹ️ Alavés draw streak. Three consecutive draws in La Liga suggests Mallorca parking the bus is the most likely scenario — a 0-0 or 1-1 remains the most probable result, which supports both Under 2.5 and NG simultaneously.
Analysis confidence
Overall Medium–High
Odds parsing High
Live research Active
Referee Unconfirmed
H2H data 5 home meetings
Anomalies 1 flagged
Confidence is High for Under 2.5 — the venue-matched H2H record, Mallorca's away scoring data, and Alavés's defensive home numbers all point in the same direction. Confidence is Medium for GG/NG No — the signal is clear but not absolute, as Mallorca do occasionally score away. The one anomaly: Alavés's recent La Liga form has produced more goals (three 2-2 draws) than their historic H2H meetings with Mallorca at Mendizorroza would suggest. This is noted but the structural H2H evidence from the same venue takes precedence.
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP Nigeria).
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