Alavés sit 18th on 33 points from 32 matches — inside the relegation zone on goal difference, with 6 games remaining. A win here would move them to 36 points and potentially out of the drop zone depending on results elsewhere; failure to win leaves them in immediate danger. Mallorca are one point ahead in 15th on 34 points from 31 matches, making this a direct six-pointer where every point is existential for both clubs. Mallorca arrive having won 3 of their last 4 overall, but their away record is the worst in La Liga: 1 win, 3 draws and 11 losses on the road all season (0.38 points per away game). No rotation risk for either side — these are the stakes both managers have been preparing for.
Expected XI (4-1-4-1): Sivera; Jonny Otto, Tenaglia, Pacheco, Parada; Blanco; Vicente, Ibáñez, Aleñá, Rebbach; T. Martínez
Expected XI (4-4-2): Leo Román; Maffeo, Valjent, Mascarell, Mojica; Darder, Morlanes, Samu, P. Torre; Asano, Muriqi
Fixture intensity: High — a direct relegation battle, one point separating these sides. Combined team card average of 5.4 per match provides a solid data anchor for the bookings markets. Samú Costa (Mallorca, 9 cards this season) and Antonio Blanco (Alavés) are the most frequently booked players for their respective sides.
| Date | Competition | Home | Score | Away | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2024 | La Liga | Alavés | 1 – 0 | Mallorca | No |
| 24 Feb 2024 | La Liga | Alavés | 1 – 1 | Mallorca | Yes |
| 21 Aug 2021 | La Liga | Alavés | 0 – 1 | Mallorca | No |
| 29 Sep 2019 | La Liga | Alavés | 2 – 0 | Mallorca | No |
| 28 Nov 2015 | Segunda | Alavés | 1 – 0 | Mallorca | No |
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) · Margin 5.3% | ||||
| 1X2 | Alavés win | No Edge | 2.24 | Home form competitive but only 26% win rate all season. Close to fair probability. |
| 1X2 | Draw | Speculative | 3.20 | Alavés have drawn 3 of their last 4 La Liga matches. Under-pressure sides often share spoils. Slim value at 3.20. |
| 1X2 | Mallorca win | Avoid | 3.83 | 4 losses in last 5 away. No away win since September 2025. Backed by no evidence at any price. |
| Over/Under goals | ||||
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Best Bet | 1.69 | 4 of 5 Alavés home H2H vs Mallorca ended under 2.5 (avg 1.4 goals). Mallorca scored 3 goals in last 5 away. Alavés concede 0.89 per home game. Strongest evidenced market. |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Avoid | 2.25 | H2H record and Mallorca's away scoring record firmly oppose this. No case to make. |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.5 | No Edge | 1.39 | Both sides likely to produce at least one combined goal. Close to fair, no meaningful edge. |
| O/U 1.5 | Under 1.5 | No Edge | 3.10 | Plausible given Mallorca's scoring drought away but a step further than the data confidently supports. |
| Both teams to score (GG/NG) | ||||
| GG/NG | No (NG) | Good Bet | 1.88 | Only 1 of 5 Alavés home H2H vs Mallorca ended with BTTS (20%). Mallorca failed to score in 2 of last 5 away games. Alavés 40% home clean sheet rate. Assessed probability 60–65% for NG. |
| GG/NG | Yes (GG) | Avoid | 1.93 | Near-even odds don't reflect the structural evidence against Mallorca scoring away in this fixture. |
| Cards | ||||
| Match cards | 5+ bookings | Good Bet | 1.39 | High-intensity relegation six-pointer. Combined team card average 5.4 per match — above La Liga norm of 4.7. Assessed probability 70–75% aligns with 1.39 implied of 71.9%. |
| Match cards | 6+ bookings | Speculative | 1.79 | Possible given the stakes but referee appointment reduces certainty below Good Bet threshold. |
| Double chance | ||||
| Double chance | Home or Draw (1X) | No Edge | 1.29 | Margin too compressed for meaningful value at 1.29. |
| Double chance | Draw or Away (X2) | Avoid | 1.65 | Including Mallorca in any combination is not justified given their away record — even at 1.65. |
| Corners | ||||
| Corners 1X2 | Home (Alavés) | No Edge | 1.38 | Home sides win corner count in majority of La Liga games. Reasonable but thin value. |
| Corners O/U 8.5 | Over 8.5 | No Edge | 1.44 | La Liga average (~9.8) supports but cautious low-scoring matches often produce fewer corners. |
| Market | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Anytime / first goalscorer | No odds available | Players tab contained no named player odds in submitted data |
| Individual player card markets | No odds available | Not visible in submitted data |
Four of the five Alavés home meetings against Mallorca in the H2H data ended under 2.5 goals, averaging just 1.4 goals per game in this fixture. Mallorca scored only 3 goals across their last 5 away La Liga games and have not won away since September 2025. Alavés concede an average of 0.89 goals per home game this season, and their recent form is dominated by low-scoring draws — three of their last four La Liga matches ended 2-2 or 1-1. The odds of 1.69 imply 59.2% probability; the assessed probability from H2H and current form data sits at 68–72%.
Both teams scored in only 1 of the 5 available Alavés home meetings against Mallorca (20%). Mallorca failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away La Liga games, netting just 3 times in those 5 matches combined. Alavés kept at least 7 clean sheets at home this season — a 40% clean sheet rate. The market prices GG/NG close to evens (1.93/1.88), which overstates the probability of Mallorca scoring given the evidence. Assessed probability for NG: 60–65%.
A direct relegation six-pointer generates physical intensity that typically pushes bookings above the La Liga norm. Alavés average 2.6 bookings per match and Mallorca 2.8 — a combined average of 5.4, versus the league norm of 4.7. At 1.39, the implied probability is 71.9%, sitting within the assessed range of 70–75% derived from the combined card averages.
Alavés have drawn 3 of their last 4 La Liga matches and cannot win in 9 consecutive games across all competitions. Their coach Sánchez Flores is yet to win in 5 games in charge. Mallorca will sit deep and try to frustrate on the road. The bookmaker's implied probability is 31.25%; the assessed probability sits at 33–36%, representing slim but present value at these odds.
Do not combine with Under 2.5 in the same accumulator — they are structurally related outcomes that share the same underlying conditions, not independent selections.
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Confidence is High for Under 2.5 — the venue-matched H2H record, Mallorca's away scoring data, and Alavés's defensive home numbers all point in the same direction. Confidence is Medium for GG/NG No — the signal is clear but not absolute, as Mallorca do occasionally score away. The one anomaly: Alavés's recent La Liga form has produced more goals (three 2-2 draws) than their historic H2H meetings with Mallorca at Mendizorroza would suggest. This is noted but the structural H2H evidence from the same venue takes precedence.