Match context
This is the first-ever Merseyside Derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium, with enormous competitive stakes on both sides. Everton sit 8th on 47 points, five points behind 5th-placed Liverpool (52 points). A home win would cut the gap to two points with six games remaining. Liverpool arrive in alarming form — four consecutive away defeats across all competitions, including humiliating exits to PSG and Man City — and can only fight for a top-five league finish after Champions League elimination. Rotation risk for Liverpool is assessed as Low: no mid-week fixtures remaining, but the squad's recent form reflects a team in crisis rather than one managing loads.
Team news
Everton (Home)
OutJack Grealish — foot fracture (season ending)
DoubtCharly Alcaraz — knock (back in training, start unconfirmed)
Susp.None identified
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Pickford; O'Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; McNeil, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye; Beto
Liverpool (Away)
OutHugo Ekitike — Achilles rupture (season ending)
OutAlisson Becker — hamstring
OutConor Bradley (knee) · Giovanni Leoni (knee) · Wataru Endo (ankle)
DoubtJoe Gomez — muscle (PSG match)
Susp.None
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Mamardashvili; Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Salah, Wirtz, Ngumoha; Gakpo
Market impact: Ekitike (top scorer, season-ending Achilles) and Alisson (hamstring) are both absent. Liverpool have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games across all competitions. Combined with Gakpo starting as makeshift striker, Liverpool's attacking ceiling is severely diminished — directly supporting the Everton Home Win and BTTS No assessments.
Referee intelligence
RefereeChris KavanaghVAR: Darren England
Cards / game (career PL)3.5 – 3.7186 Premier League games
ClassificationMediumAverage disciplinarian
Fixture intensityHighDerby — European stakes
Kavanagh confirmed. Medium classification — expect 3–5 total cards given derby intensity and Everton's typically high foul rate. Total cards market not submitted (Bookings tab missing — see Section 7).
Form & head-to-head
Head-to-head — Everton home (venue-matched) — Primary
| Date |
Venue |
Result |
BTTS |
Total goals |
| 12.02.25 |
Goodison (final derby) |
2-2 Draw |
Yes |
4 |
| 24.04.24 |
Goodison |
2-0 Everton |
No |
2 |
| 03.09.22 |
Goodison |
0-0 Draw |
No |
0 |
| 01.12.21 |
Goodison |
1-4 Liverpool |
Yes |
5 |
| 17.10.20 |
Goodison |
2-2 Draw |
Yes |
4 |
Avg goals (Everton home): 3.0 / game (15 goals in 5) BTTS rate: 3/5 (60%) Over 2.5 rate: 3/5 (60%) Liverpool wins: 1/5 (20%) — last win 2021 Draws: 3/5 (60%) ⚠️ First derby at Hill Dickinson — no venue precedent
This season's reverse fixture — supplementary
Liverpool 2-1 Everton at Anfield, September 2025 (Gravenberch, Ekitike / Gueye). BTTS ✅ · Over 2.5 ✅
Market probability table
All markets extracted from 8 submitted screenshots. Internal fair probability and value gap used for verdict classification only. Published columns: Market · Outcome · Odds · My Assessment · Verdict.
| Market |
Outcome |
Odds |
My assessment |
Verdict |
| Category A — Core markets (full signal stack) |
| Match result |
Home win (Everton) |
3.17 |
39% |
Best Bet |
| Match result |
Draw |
3.39 |
29% |
No edge |
| Match result |
Away win (Liverpool) |
2.33 |
32% |
Avoid |
| BTTS |
No |
2.15 |
50% |
Good Bet |
| BTTS |
Yes |
1.72 |
50% |
Avoid |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
50% |
No edge |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
50% |
No edge |
| Corners Over/Under 9.5 |
Over 9.5 |
1.70 |
57% |
Speculative |
| Corners Over/Under 9.5 |
Under 9.5 |
2.05 |
43% |
Avoid |
| Over/Under cards |
❓ No odds — Bookings tab not submitted. See Section 7. |
| Category B — Supplementary markets (abbreviated assessment) |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
Over 1.5 |
1.29 |
~74% |
No edge |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
Over 3.5 |
3.20 |
~28% |
No edge |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
Under 3.5 |
1.36 |
~72% |
No edge |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
Over 4.5 |
6.10 |
~11% |
No edge |
| Double chance |
Home or Draw |
1.59 |
~68% |
Good Bet |
| Double chance |
Draw or Away |
1.36 |
~61% |
Avoid |
| Double chance |
Home or Away |
1.33 |
~71% |
No edge |
| Corners Over/Under 8.5 |
Over 8.5 |
1.43 |
~65% |
No edge |
| Corners Over/Under 10.5 |
Over / Under |
2.10 / 1.66 |
~46% / ~54% |
No edge |
| Away team corners O/U |
Over 5.5 |
2.00 |
~56% |
Speculative |
| Category C — Structural reference markets (no signal stack) |
| 1X2 — 1UP / 2UP |
Various |
— |
Structural — mirrors match result with handicap |
| Asian Handicap 0 (DNB) |
Home / Away |
2.20 / 1.65 |
Home DNB now assessed ~52% vs fair 42.9% (+9.1%). See Supplementary Notes. |
| All Asian Handicaps, Corners 1X2, Handicap 0:1–0:3 |
— |
— |
Structural reference — no independent signal stack |
| Category D — Excluded markets (no processing) |
| Early Goals O/U (locked), 1st Goal, Win to Nil variants, GG/NG 2+, Score X in a Row, Lead by X Goals, Match Shots, Team Assists, Team Saves, Corner Range bands, 1st/Last Corner, HT Win to Nil, Handicap 2:0/3:0 |
Excluded |
Markets not covered in this analysis
| Market |
Status |
Reason |
Editorial action |
| Over/Under total cards (3.5, 4.5 etc.) |
No odds |
Bookings tab not screenshotted |
Re-submit Bookings tab |
| First half 1X2 & Over/Under goals |
No odds |
Half tab not screenshotted |
Re-submit Half tab |
| Anytime scorer / First scorer |
No odds |
Players tab not screenshotted |
Re-submit Players tab — Salah's farewell derby is high-interest |
| Individual player cards |
No odds |
Bookings tab not screenshotted |
James Garner (8 cards this season) is a flag risk — worth covering |
Market analysis
The corrected form data significantly strengthens the Everton home win case. Everton's last two home games produced emphatic results — 3-0 vs Chelsea and 2-0 vs Burnley — demonstrating genuine home strength at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Liverpool's last five away games read LLLL W, with their only win coming against Wolves in the FA Cup. Their three recent competitive away defeats — 0-2 PSG (CL), 0-4 Man City (FAC), 1-2 Brighton (PL) — point to a side that genuinely cannot hold its shape on the road. Adding the absence of Ekitike and Alisson, and the psychological wreckage of the PSG exit, our assessed probability for Everton home win moves to ~39% — well above the bookmaker's fair probability of 30.3%, producing a value gap of +8.7%. Three strong signals are aligned: catastrophic Liverpool away form, Everton's strong recent home record, and Liverpool's severe squad disruption. This clears the Best Bet threshold at High confidence.
Liverpool have failed to score in three of their last five away games — 0 vs PSG, 0 vs Galatasaray, 0 vs Man City — with their attack operating without Ekitike and heavily reliant on Salah. While the H2H shows a 60% BTTS rate historically (3/5), that pattern includes the 1-4 thrashing under Klopp's prime Liverpool. Current Liverpool have scored just 1 goal in their last 3 away competitive fixtures. Our BTTS No assessment rises to ~50% vs the bookmaker's 44.4% fair probability, delivering a +5.6% value gap — comfortably within Good Bet territory. The BTTS No scenario is further supported by the fact that two of the last five H2H fixtures produced clean sheets (2-0 and 0-0).
The corrected H2H average of 3.0 goals per game (not 2.6 as previously stated) and a 60% Over 2.5 rate in the last five Everton home derbies significantly weakens the Under 2.5 case. The opposing force is Liverpool's current scoring drought — 0 goals in 3 of their last 5 away games. These two signals pull in opposite directions and produce a near-perfect split: our assessment for Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 both sit at ~50%, matching the book's fair split of 50.4% / 49.6%. Neither outcome offers meaningful edge. This market is removed from the recommendations.
Unchanged from original assessment. Liverpool averaged 8.6 corners per game in their last five away matches, reflecting their possession-dominant, wing-heavy approach. Everton's opponents earn 5.8 corners per game at their home ground across the last five. Combined projection of 10–11 total corners supports Over 9.5. Our assessment: ~57% vs fair 54.7%, a +2.3% gap. Weakest pick on the card — best treated as an accumulator leg.
Betting tips
🟢 Best Bet
🟢
Best Bet Everton to Win
Odds 3.17
⚠️ Confirm official lineups at 13:00 BST / 14:00 WAT. Salah's farewell derby motivation is a Liverpool wildcard — monitor.
Three strong signals converge. First: Liverpool's away form is catastrophic — four consecutive away losses across all competitions, including 0-4 vs Man City and 0-2 vs PSG, with just 1 goal scored in their last three away competitive games. Second: Everton's last two home results at Hill Dickinson Stadium were 3-0 vs Chelsea and 2-0 vs Burnley — emphatic performances showing genuine home attacking quality. Third: Liverpool are without their top scorer (Ekitike, season-ending Achilles) and first-choice goalkeeper (Alisson), forcing Gakpo into the striker role and Mamardashvili into goal. Liverpool have won only 1 of the last 5 Merseyside derbies at Everton's home. Our probability assessment for the home win: ~39% vs the bookmaker's fair probability of 30.3% — a +8.7% value gap, clearing the Best Bet threshold with three aligned strong signals.
⚠️ Note: This is the first derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Everton's home advantage at this specific ground is not yet empirically verified for a fixture of this magnitude. The recommendation stands on the weight of the form and squad data.
🔵 Good Bet
⚠️ Confirm lineups at T-60. If Salah starts and Liverpool find their feet early, BTTS Yes risk rises.
Liverpool have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games: 0 goals vs PSG (CL), 0 vs Galatasaray (CL), 0 vs Man City (FAC). Their last away Premier League goal came in a 1-2 defeat at Brighton. Without Ekitike and with Gakpo as a makeshift striker, Liverpool's goal threat is significantly diminished. The bookmaker prices BTTS No at a fair probability of 44.4%; our assessment is ~50%, a +5.6% value gap. Two of the last five Everton home derbies ended without both teams scoring (2-0 and 0-0), consistent with this assessment. Correlated with the Best Bet — in many Everton win scenarios, Liverpool are kept out.
🟡 Speculative
🟡
Speculative Corners Over 9.5
Odds 1.70
Liverpool averaged 8.6 corners per game in their last five away matches. Everton's opponents earn 5.8 corners per game at their home ground. Combined projection: 10–11 total corners, supporting Over 9.5. Our assessment: ~57% vs fair 54.7%, a +2.3% gap.
⚠️ Weakest pick on the card — treat as an accumulator addition only. Borderline Speculative.
⚪ No edge
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
Draw @ 3.39~29% assessed vs 28.4% fair — too small a gap
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.89H2H 60% Over rate offsets Liverpool scoring drought — coin flip
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92H2H 3.0 avg goals weakens Under case — now essentially 50/50
Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29~74% probability — correctly priced
Over/Under 3.5 Goals @ 3.20 / 1.36H2H adjusted — Over 3.5 now ~28%, fairly priced
Corners Over/Under 10.5 @ 2.10 / 1.66Both sides within 2% of fair probability
Double Chance — Home or Away @ 1.33~71% assessed — correctly priced at these odds
⛔ Avoid
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Liverpool Away Win @ 2.33Book 41.3% fair; our assessment 32% — 4 straight away losses, Ekitike/Alisson absent
BTTS — Yes @ 1.72Book 55.6% fair; our assessment 50% — Liverpool scored 0 in 3 of last 5 away games
Double Chance — Draw or Away @ 1.36~61% assessed vs ~69.7% implied — overpriced given Liverpool's form
Corners Under 9.5 @ 2.05Liverpool's 8.6 corner away average contradicts this line
Supplementary market notes
Markets assessed but not recommended as standalone picks — included for full odds card transparency.
Asian Handicap 0 — Everton (DNB) @ 2.20 With the revised Everton home win probability at ~39%, the DNB probability (Everton win split only) rises to ~52% vs the book's 42.9% fair probability — a +9.1% gap. This is actually higher than the outright match result gap. However, it is a structural derivative of the match result market and is flagged here as an alternative for bettors who want draw protection, rather than a separate standalone recommendation. It cannot be combined with the Home Win in the same accumulator.
Double Chance — Home or Draw @ 1.59 With Everton home win at ~39% and draw at ~29%, the combined probability is ~68% vs the book's derived fair of 58.7% — a +9.3% gap. This is now a stronger value opportunity than initially assessed, but at odds of 1.59 the return is low. Worth noting for risk-averse bettors who don't want to stake on the outright home win at 3.17.
Away Team Corners Over 5.5 @ 2.00 Liverpool's 8.6 corner away average makes this projection reasonable. Approximately +6% gap on a 2-outcome strip but derived from a small sample. Interesting accumulator leg — can be combined with the Best Bet or BTTS No without structural conflict.
Accumulator builder notes
Best Bet + Good Bet — structurally correlated, not conflicting Everton Home Win and BTTS No are correlated — in most Everton win scenarios where Liverpool fail to score (1-0, 2-0), BTTS No also lands. Combining them in an accumulator reduces independence but does not create a logical contradiction. Combined implied odds at 3.17 × 2.15 ≈ 6.82. This is a reasonable same-game combination for this fixture.
Three-leg builder suggestion Everton Home Win @ 3.17 + BTTS No @ 2.15 + Corners Over 9.5 @ 1.70 — the corners leg is independently driven (possession/width factors) and does not conflict with a tight, low-scoring Everton win. Combined odds: ~11.6. Speculative-tier combined stake only.
Markets to keep separate Do not combine Everton Home Win with Asian Handicap 0 Home or Double Chance Home or Draw — these are structural equivalents of the same outcome and do not provide additional edge when stacked together.
Conditional flags
⚠️ Official lineups not yet confirmed. All three recommendations are sensitive to lineup data. Charly Alcaraz (Everton) is back in training but unconfirmed to start. Joe Gomez (Liverpool) is a muscle doubt. ✅ If Everton field their expected XI: all recommendations stand. ❌ If Liverpool announce a meaningfully stronger lineup with Gomez returning: BTTS No risk increases slightly, Best Bet remains intact. Verify lineups at 13:00 BST / 14:00 WAT before publishing.
ℹ️ New stadium — Hill Dickinson Stadium. All H2H patterns are drawn from Goodison Park and applied directionally. Everton's new-ground home advantage is not yet empirically established for a high-stakes derby. This caveat has been factored into the Best Bet confidence rating — confidence is High on the data, but the venue factor is noted.
ℹ️ Mohamed Salah farewell motivation. Salah has announced he will leave at season end. This is his final Merseyside Derby. Motivational upside for Salah specifically is a qualitative factor that cannot be modelled — it is the primary wildcard against the Everton home win assessment.
Analysis confidence
OverallMedium–High
Odds parsingHigh
Live researchActive
H2H data5 meetings
RefereeConfirmed
Data completenessPartial
Cards marketNo odds
LineupsT-60 check
This analysis is supported by verified team news, confirmed referee, live form data and five meetings of H2H evidence. The primary signal driving the Best Bet is Liverpool's confirmed away form — four consecutive away losses, including 0 goals scored in three of those games. Everton's last two home results (3-0 vs Chelsea, 2-0 vs Burnley) provide the complementary positive signal. Primary remaining uncertainty is the new stadium venue effect at Hill Dickinson, which cannot be empirically modelled. Bookings and Half tabs are missing — cards and HT markets remain unassessed.
Editorial checklist — complete before publishing ☐ Confirm official lineups (~13:00 BST / 14:00 WAT) — check Alcaraz (EVE) and Gomez (LIV) status ☐ Re-submit Bookings, Half and Players tabs if those markets are needed ☐ Note Hill Dickinson Stadium context for Nigerian audience — first-ever derby at this ground ☐ Confirm Mohamed Salah is starting — flag his farewell derby motivation in the article ☐ Cross-check if odds on Everton Home Win have moved since analysis (value gap may have narrowed)
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP Nigeria).
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