A relegation six-pointer at Montilivi. Girona sit 15th on 38 points, four clear of the drop zone but not yet mathematically safe with five fixtures left. Mallorca are 17th on 35 points — a single point above the relegation line and carrying the worst away record in La Liga (1W–3D–12L, 6 points from 16 games). With league survival at stake for both sides, this is a high-tension, high-stakes fixture rather than a routine end-of-season game. Girona's home form has been strong (3W–2L in their last 5 at Montilivi, including wins over Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao); Mallorca have lost four of their last five on the road.
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Gazzaniga; Francés, Krejčí, Blind, Lemar; Solís, Iván Martín; Asprilla, Tsygankov, Bryan Gil; Stuani.
Expected XI: 3-4-2-1 — Greif; Valjent, Copete, Mojica; Maffeo, Morlanes, Samú Costa, Lato; Darder, Asano; Muriqi (if fit).
| Date | Comp | Score | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 May 2025 | La Liga | Girona 1–0 | No | 1 |
| 23 Sep 2023 | La Liga | Girona 5–3 | Yes | 8 |
| 04 May 2023 | La Liga | Girona 2–1 | Yes | 3 |
| 14 Nov 2020 | La Liga 2 | Girona 0–1 | No | 1 |
| 18 Feb 2017 | La Liga 2 | Girona 1–0 | No | 1 |
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cards | Over 3.5 | Best Bet | 1.52 | 73% |
| Total Cards | Over 4.5 | Good Bet | 2.10 | 53% |
| Double Chance | Girona or Draw (1X) | Good Bet | 1.29 | 84% |
| Match Result | Girona Win | Speculative | 2.09 | 54% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | No Edge | 2.05 | 49% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | No Edge | 1.78 | 51% |
| BTTS | Yes | No Edge | 1.95 | 50% |
| BTTS | No | No Edge | 1.85 | 50% |
| Match Result | Draw | No Edge | 3.40 | 28% |
| Match Result | Mallorca Win | Avoid | 3.85 | 18% |
| Asian Handicap | Mallorca +1.0 | Avoid | 2.18 | 42% |
| Market | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Total Corners | No reliable data | Insufficient season-level corner samples for both sides at 95% confidence. |
| First Goalscorer | Skipped | High-variance market; depends on starting XI. |
Three signals stack here: Maeso averages 4.55 yellows per La Liga game, both teams are in genuine relegation tension (4 and 1 points clear of the drop respectively), and 6 of the last 8 H2H meetings produced 5+ cards. A Poisson model with λ ≈ 4.7–5.0 puts Over 3.5 above 73% — well clear of the 65.8% the bookmaker is implying.
Mallorca's away record is the worst in La Liga: 1 win and 6 points from 16 matches, including four straight defeats. Girona by contrast have won 3 of their last 5 at Montilivi — including impressive results against Barcelona (2–1) and Athletic Bilbao (3–0). Without Muriqi, Mallorca's only goal threat thins out further. We assess the no-Mallorca-win probability at ~84% versus the implied 77.5%.
The same Maeso + relegation-tension stack pushes the higher line into value too. Poisson with λ ≈ 4.8 puts Over 4.5 around 53%, against a book-implied 47.6%. A safer way to play this is alongside the Best Bet — but as a standalone it stands on its own.
Girona have won all three La Liga visits Mallorca have made to Montilivi, and recent home form includes statement wins over Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao. With a depleted Mallorca attack and Girona desperate for points, the home side has a real edge — we assess ~54% against the 47.8% the bookmaker is pricing.
Smaller value gap than the cards markets, and Girona's attack is itself depleted (Vanat and Abel Ruiz both out, Stuani the lone senior striker). Treat as a pick rather than a banker.
Markets that are fairly priced — assessed but no meaningful edge:
Overpriced at current odds — skip:
Confirmed referee with a stable La Liga sample, deep venue-matched H2H (Girona unbeaten in their last four La Liga meetings at Montilivi), no internal odds inconsistencies between Match Result, Double Chance and Asian Handicap markets, live data current. The single residual uncertainty is Muriqi's fitness, which affects only the BTTS and scorer markets — the Best Bet (cards) is independent of it.