This is a top-half side away at a bottom-three side, but the recent history between them says it is closer than the table looks. Liverpool sit 5th with 15 points from 9 games and travel well — they have won their last three league games on the road (2–1 at Brentford, 1–0 at Bournemouth, 2–0 at Ipswich). Their wider form is bumpy, though: they lost at Fenerbahce in Europe on Tuesday and at home to Arsenal before that. Crystal Palace are 18th and inside the relegation zone, but at home against Liverpool they have been stubborn — they won this exact fixture 2–1 last season and have taken points off the Reds more than once. Both teams played in Europe three days before this game, so tired legs are a factor for both.
Liverpool carried a number of fitness doubts into the game, but their travelling squad is deep and their away results have held up through it.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | Crystal Palace | 2–1 | Liverpool | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 2024 | Crystal Palace | 0–1 | Liverpool | No | 1 |
| Dec 2023 | Crystal Palace | 1–2 | Liverpool | Yes | 3 |
| Feb 2023 | Crystal Palace | 0–0 | Liverpool | No | 0 |
Based on four Selhurst meetings, weighted toward the most recent. Recent weighting is applied because Liverpool have changed manager and squad since the older games, so these rates are a guide rather than a strong rule. The Community Shield meeting is left out here as it was played at a neutral venue.
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cards | Under 3.5 | Good Bet | 1.91 | 54-59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes | Speculative | 1.67 | 58-63% |
| Liverpool team goals | Under 2.5 | Speculative | 1.49 | 64-69% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | No edge | 1.57 | 61-66% |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | No edge | 1.18 | 81-86% |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | No edge | 2.40 | 37-43% |
| Liverpool team goals | Over 1.5 | No edge | 1.55 | 59-65% |
| Match result | Crystal Palace win | No edge | 5.44 | 16-22% |
| Match result | Draw | No edge | 4.53 | 19-24% |
| Match result | Liverpool win | Avoid | 1.60 | 57-63% |
| Draw no bet | Liverpool | Avoid | 1.25 | 73-78% |
| Double chance | Draw or Liverpool | Avoid | 1.17 | 79-83% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | Avoid | 2.45 | 34-39% |
| Liverpool win to nil | Yes | Avoid | 3.00 | 27-33% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | Yes | Avoid | 2.60 | 30-35% |
| Both teams to score | No | Avoid | 2.20 | 37-42% |
| Total cards | Over 3.5 | Avoid | 1.74 | 41-46% |
The referee, Tony Harrington, is one of the most lenient in the league this season at about 3.2 cards a game — below the 3.5 line. The price of 1.91 treats this as a coin flip, but a low-card whistle tilts it toward the under. This is the clearest edge in the match.
Both teams scored in the two most recent Selhurst meetings, and Liverpool almost always find the net on the road. Our read sits a touch above the price. Palace have still scored in most home games even while losing.
Why only speculative: Palace are without their main striker, and two of the last four meetings here finished with one side kept out, so a clean sheet is a real risk. Small stakes.
Liverpool have scored fewer than three in all four of their recent games at Selhurst, and in each of their last three league away trips (2, 1 and 2 goals). This fixture does not turn into a rout even when Liverpool win it.
Why only speculative: Palace's defence has leaked badly this season, so a three-goal Liverpool haul is not out of the question. The history points under, but it is a lean, not a lock.
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
The odds, referee and head-to-head all point the same way: a tight, lower-scoring game with the clearest edge on the low card count. Confidence is Medium because the head-to-head sample is only four games and both squads have changed since the older ones, and because one anomaly was noted — a player-booking market still listed a Crystal Palace striker who is suspended for this game.