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Crystal Palace vs Liverpool Predictions - November 8, 2026


Premier League Matchday 11 Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Sunday, 8 November 2026  ·  Kick-off: 14:00 WAT (13:00 GMT)
  Live team news, form, head-to-head and referee all included in this preview.

Match context

This is a top-half side away at a bottom-three side, but the recent history between them says it is closer than the table looks. Liverpool sit 5th with 15 points from 9 games and travel well — they have won their last three league games on the road (2–1 at Brentford, 1–0 at Bournemouth, 2–0 at Ipswich). Their wider form is bumpy, though: they lost at Fenerbahce in Europe on Tuesday and at home to Arsenal before that. Crystal Palace are 18th and inside the relegation zone, but at home against Liverpool they have been stubborn — they won this exact fixture 2–1 last season and have taken points off the Reds more than once. Both teams played in Europe three days before this game, so tired legs are a factor for both.

Team news

Crystal Palace
Out Jean-Philippe Mateta — suspended (red card last game)
Out Chadi Riad — knee (long-term)
Out Ismaila Sarr — groin
Out Takehiro Tomiyasu — calf
Liverpool
Out Several squad players carrying knocks

Liverpool carried a number of fitness doubts into the game, but their travelling squad is deep and their away results have held up through it.

Palace losing their main striker to suspension weakens an already low-scoring home attack. That pushes slightly toward a tight, lower-scoring game — which the head-to-head history also points to.

Referee intelligence

Referee Tony Harrington ~3.2 cards per game this season
Classification Low
Cards confidence Medium
Implication A lenient whistle that leans the card total under the common 3.5 line.

Form & head-to-head

Crystal Palace — Last 5 Home
D 1–1 L 0–2 W 3–1 L 0–2 W 4–0
Mixed at home across all competitions — big wins over Forest and Lech, but beaten by Newcastle and Bristol City. Leaky at the back.
Liverpool — Last 5 Away
L 2–3 W 2–1 W 6–3 W 1–0 W 2–0
Strong on the road — four wins from five away, the only loss at Fenerbahce. In the league they have won all three recent away trips.
Head-to-head — Crystal Palace at home (primary dataset)
Date Home Score Away BTTS Goals
Sep 2025 Crystal Palace 2–1 Liverpool Yes 3
Oct 2024 Crystal Palace 0–1 Liverpool No 1
Dec 2023 Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Yes 3
Feb 2023 Crystal Palace 0–0 Liverpool No 0
Selhurst BTTS rate: 67% Avg goals: 2.2/game Liverpool kept under 3 goals: 4 of 4

Based on four Selhurst meetings, weighted toward the most recent. Recent weighting is applied because Liverpool have changed manager and squad since the older games, so these rates are a guide rather than a strong rule. The Community Shield meeting is left out here as it was played at a neutral venue.

Market probability table — key markets

Market Outcome Verdict Odds My Assessment
Total cards Under 3.5 Good Bet 1.91 54-59%
Both teams to score Yes Speculative 1.67 58-63%
Liverpool team goals Under 2.5 Speculative 1.49 64-69%
Total goals Over 2.5 No edge 1.57 61-66%
Total goals Over 1.5 No edge 1.18 81-86%
Total goals Over 3.5 No edge 2.40 37-43%
Liverpool team goals Over 1.5 No edge 1.55 59-65%
Match result Crystal Palace win No edge 5.44 16-22%
Match result Draw No edge 4.53 19-24%
Match result Liverpool win Avoid 1.60 57-63%
Draw no bet Liverpool Avoid 1.25 73-78%
Double chance Draw or Liverpool Avoid 1.17 79-83%
Total goals Under 2.5 Avoid 2.45 34-39%
Liverpool win to nil Yes Avoid 3.00 27-33%
Liverpool clean sheet Yes Avoid 2.60 30-35%
Both teams to score No Avoid 2.20 37-42%
Total cards Over 3.5 Avoid 1.74 41-46%
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Betting tips

🔵 Good Bet
🔵
Good Bet Total cards — Under 3.5
Odds 1.91

The referee, Tony Harrington, is one of the most lenient in the league this season at about 3.2 cards a game — below the 3.5 line. The price of 1.91 treats this as a coin flip, but a low-card whistle tilts it toward the under. This is the clearest edge in the match.

🟡 Speculative
🟡
Speculative Both teams to score — Yes
Odds 1.67

Both teams scored in the two most recent Selhurst meetings, and Liverpool almost always find the net on the road. Our read sits a touch above the price. Palace have still scored in most home games even while losing.

Why only speculative: Palace are without their main striker, and two of the last four meetings here finished with one side kept out, so a clean sheet is a real risk. Small stakes.

🟡
Speculative Liverpool team goals — Under 2.5
Odds 1.49

Liverpool have scored fewer than three in all four of their recent games at Selhurst, and in each of their last three league away trips (2, 1 and 2 goals). This fixture does not turn into a rout even when Liverpool win it.

Why only speculative: Palace's defence has leaked badly this season, so a three-goal Liverpool haul is not out of the question. The history points under, but it is a lean, not a lock.

⚪ No Edge

These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:

Total goals — Over 2.5 @ 1.57 We make it about 64%. A small lean, but not enough to clear our goals bar.
Total goals — Over 1.5 @ 1.18 Likely at over 80%, but the short price leaves no room.
Total goals — Over 3.5 @ 2.40 Around 40% — these meetings rarely reach four goals. Priced about right.
Liverpool team goals — Over 1.5 @ 1.55 About 62% — fair, given Liverpool stay modest at Selhurst.
Crystal Palace win @ 5.44 Palace have won this fixture before, but their current form makes the big price fair.
Draw @ 4.53 A real possibility given the tight history, but the price matches our read.
⛔ Avoid

These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:

Total cards — Over 3.5 @ 1.74 A lenient referee averaging about 3.2 cards a game makes this the wrong side.
Both teams to score — No @ 2.20 The flip side of our BTTS Yes lean — No is the weaker side here.
Liverpool clean sheet — Yes @ 2.60 In a tight, even-ish game a shutout is less reliable than the price suggests; our read is lower.
Liverpool win to nil — Yes @ 3.00 Same clean-sheet weakness bundled with the win — too much to ask at this price.
Total goals — Under 2.5 @ 2.45 Our read is nearer a 2–3 goal game; the under is a little short of value at this price.
Match result — Liverpool win @ 1.60 Correct favourite, but the price gives no value — Palace have troubled Liverpool here before.
Draw no bet — Liverpool @ 1.25 Same Liverpool call with the draw removed; still no value at the price.
Double chance — Draw or Liverpool @ 1.17 Very likely, but the odds already pay for it in full.
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Accumulator builder notes

Equivalent markets Liverpool win, Draw no bet — Liverpool, and Double chance — Draw or Liverpool are three ways of backing the same result. Never combine them on one slip; they all win or lose together.
Banker leg The steadiest leg here is Total cards Under 3.5, driven by a low-card referee. The two goal-based picks are thinner — use at most one of them, not both, since they overlap.

Analysis confidence

Overall Medium
Odds parsing High
Live research Active
Referee Named
H2H data 4 meetings
Anomalies 1 flagged

The odds, referee and head-to-head all point the same way: a tight, lower-scoring game with the clearest edge on the low card count. Confidence is Medium because the head-to-head sample is only four games and both squads have changed since the older ones, and because one anomaly was noted — a player-booking market still listed a Crystal Palace striker who is suspended for this game.

Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact NRGP Nigeria · nrgpnigeria.org · 18+.

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