Two inconsistent sides meet at Selhurst Park: Palace sit 14th, Newcastle 11th, and neither has strung results together. Palace are leaking badly — beaten 5–0 at Brighton and knocked about in Europe — yet remain lively at home, where they have beaten Nottingham Forest 3–1 and Middlesbrough 3–0 this season. Newcastle can hurt sides on the road (a 2–0 win at Tottenham earlier in the season) but shipped four in each of their last two league away games, losing 1–4 at Coventry and 1–4 at Leeds. The sub-plot the odds under-rate: Palace have not lost to Newcastle at Selhurst in their last five league meetings, and those games have been tight — the opposite of what both defences are doing elsewhere.
Note: Axel Disasi back from a three-match ban; Dean Henderson back in training. Expected XI (3-4-2-1): Benítez; Richards, Disasi, Ahanor; Khalaili, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; Sarr, Pino; Mateta.
Note: Dedic, Murphy and Osula pushing to start. Expected XI (4-2-3-1): Hornícek; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Gonzalez, Joelinton; Murphy, Wissa, Barnes; Osula.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Crystal Palace | 2–1 | Newcastle | Yes | 3 |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Crystal Palace | 1–1 | Newcastle | Yes | 2 |
| 24 Apr 2024 | Crystal Palace | 2–0 | Newcastle | No | 2 |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Crystal Palace | 0–0 | Newcastle | No | 0 |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Crystal Palace | 1–1 | Newcastle | Yes | 2 |
Supplementary (all venues, last 10): four Newcastle wins, four draws, two Palace wins — but the venue-matched Selhurst record above is the stronger guide for a home fixture.
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Crystal Palace or Draw | Good Bet | 1.57 | 66% |
| Match result | Draw | Good Bet | 3.78 | 30% |
| Draw no bet | Crystal Palace | Good Bet | 2.10 | 51% |
| Over/Under 1.5 | Over 1.5 | Solid Pick | 1.16 | 84% |
| Team to score | Crystal Palace to score | Solid Pick | 1.24 | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes | Solid Pick | 1.48 | 65% |
| Over/Under 4.5 | Under 4.5 | Solid Pick | 1.27 | 76% |
| Match result | Crystal Palace win | Speculative | 2.92 | 36% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | No edge | 1.54 | 62% |
| Over/Under 3.5 | Under 3.5 | No edge | 1.66 | 60% |
| Over/Under 3.5 | Over 3.5 | No edge | 2.30 | 42% |
| Total bookings | Over 3.5 | No edge | 1.48 | 62% |
| Match result | Newcastle win | Avoid | 2.42 | 33% |
| Team to score | Newcastle to score | Avoid | 1.19 | 73% |
| Newcastle clean sheet | Yes | Avoid | 4.00 | 19% |
Palace are unbeaten in their last five home league meetings with Newcastle, and the visitors arrive in rough shape — two straight league away thrashings and little consistency. At home against that, Palace avoiding defeat lands higher on our read (66%) than the price implies.
The bigger-priced route to the same picture. Three of the last five Selhurst meetings finished level, both teams are misfiring, and the stalemate looks underpriced at 3.78 for a game between two sides short on confidence.
Our assessment puts this at around 84% — four of the last five Selhurst meetings cleared it, and both defences are leaking this season. The price is about right, so there is no edge, but it is a dependable leg for an accumulator.
We make this about 79%. Palace have scored in four of their last five home games against Newcastle and are scoring freely at Selhurst this season, against a Newcastle defence that shipped four in each of its last two aways. Fairly priced, but a reliable leg.
About 65% on our read: both back lines are shipping goals, Palace score at home, and Newcastle have found the net even in their heavy defeats. Priced close to fair — a steady leg rather than a standout edge.
About 76%. No Selhurst meeting between these two in the last five topped three goals, which cushions the blowout risk even with both teams leaking. Priced fairly — a dependable low-odds leg.
The outright win carries a small edge (our 36% vs a fair 34%) on home advantage, the Selhurst record and Newcastle's away wobble. The 5–0 loss at Brighton last time out keeps this speculative rather than a confident call.
Same directional view as the double chance and draw-no-bet picks — back one of them, don't stack all three.
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Two signals pull against each other: current form has both defences shipping goals, while the venue-matched Selhurst record is tight and low-scoring. That conflict keeps the total-goals markets at No Edge, with the dependable legs being the high-probability ones (Over 1.5, Palace to score, both teams to score). The firmest read is directional — value on the Palace/Draw side and against a Newcastle win. Referee is unconfirmed, so no cards market is tipped.