Match context
Two inconsistent sides meet at Selhurst Park: Palace sit 14th, Newcastle 11th, and neither has strung results together. Palace are leaking badly — beaten 5–0 at Brighton and knocked about in Europe — yet remain lively at home, where they have beaten Nottingham Forest 3–1 and Middlesbrough 3–0 this season. Newcastle can hurt sides on the road (a 2–0 win at Tottenham earlier in the season) but shipped four in each of their last two league away games, losing 1–4 at Coventry and 1–4 at Leeds. The sub-plot the odds under-rate: Palace have not lost to Newcastle at Selhurst in their last five league meetings, and those games have been tight — the opposite of what both defences are doing elsewhere.
Team news
Crystal Palace
Out Chadi Riad — knee (long-term)
Out Takehiro Tomiyasu — calf
Doubtful Jean-Philippe Mateta — thigh
Doubtful Jørgen Strand Larsen — knock
Doubtful Ben Chilwell — knee
Note: Axel Disasi back from a three-match ban; Dean Henderson back in training. Expected XI (3-4-2-1): Benítez; Richards, Disasi, Ahanor; Khalaili, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; Sarr, Pino; Mateta.
Newcastle
Out Anthony Elanga — thigh
Out Tino Livramento
Out Ewen Jaouen
Doubtful Jacob Ramsey — thigh (back in training)
Note: Dedic, Murphy and Osula pushing to start. Expected XI (4-2-3-1): Hornícek; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Gonzalez, Joelinton; Murphy, Wissa, Barnes; Osula.
Disasi's return steadies a leaking back line, while Newcastle travel without Elanga and off two heavy away defeats — part of why Palace scoring and both-teams-scoring look stronger than the outright and total-goals lines.
Referee intelligence
Referee ⚠️ Unconfirmed No official named for this fixture
Classification Medium (default)
Cards confidence Low
Implication With no official named, the cards markets are left untipped.
Form & head-to-head
H2H — Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park (primary dataset)
| Date |
Home |
Score |
Away |
BTTS |
Goals |
| 12 Apr 2026 |
Crystal Palace |
2–1 |
Newcastle |
Yes |
3 |
| 30 Nov 2024 |
Crystal Palace |
1–1 |
Newcastle |
Yes |
2 |
| 24 Apr 2024 |
Crystal Palace |
2–0 |
Newcastle |
No |
2 |
| 21 Jan 2023 |
Crystal Palace |
0–0 |
Newcastle |
No |
0 |
| 23 Oct 2021 |
Crystal Palace |
1–1 |
Newcastle |
Yes |
2 |
Palace at Selhurst: W2 D3 L0 Selhurst BTTS rate: 60% Avg goals: 1.8/game Over 2.5 rate: 20%
Supplementary (all venues, last 10): four Newcastle wins, four draws, two Palace wins — but the venue-matched Selhurst record above is the stronger guide for a home fixture.
Market probability table — key markets
| Market |
Outcome |
Verdict |
Odds |
My Assessment |
| Double chance |
Crystal Palace or Draw |
Good Bet |
1.57 |
66% |
| Match result |
Draw |
Good Bet |
3.78 |
30% |
| Draw no bet |
Crystal Palace |
Good Bet |
2.10 |
51% |
| Over/Under 1.5 |
Over 1.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.16 |
84% |
| Team to score |
Crystal Palace to score |
Solid Pick |
1.24 |
79% |
| Both teams to score |
Yes |
Solid Pick |
1.48 |
65% |
| Over/Under 4.5 |
Under 4.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.27 |
76% |
| Match result |
Crystal Palace win |
Speculative |
2.92 |
36% |
| Over/Under 2.5 |
Over 2.5 |
No edge |
1.54 |
62% |
| Over/Under 3.5 |
Under 3.5 |
No edge |
1.66 |
60% |
| Over/Under 3.5 |
Over 3.5 |
No edge |
2.30 |
42% |
| Total bookings |
Over 3.5 |
No edge |
1.48 |
62% |
| Match result |
Newcastle win |
Avoid |
2.42 |
33% |
| Team to score |
Newcastle to score |
Avoid |
1.19 |
73% |
| Newcastle clean sheet |
Yes |
Avoid |
4.00 |
19% |
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Betting tips
🔵 Good Bet
🔵
Good Bet Double chance — Crystal Palace or Draw
Odds1.57
Palace are unbeaten in their last five home league meetings with Newcastle, and the visitors arrive in rough shape — two straight league away thrashings and little consistency. At home against that, Palace avoiding defeat lands higher on our read (66%) than the price implies.
🔵
Good Bet Match result — Draw
Odds3.78
The bigger-priced route to the same picture. Three of the last five Selhurst meetings finished level, both teams are misfiring, and the stalemate looks underpriced at 3.78 for a game between two sides short on confidence.
🎯 Solid Pick
🎯
Solid Pick Over 1.5 goals
Odds1.16
Our assessment puts this at around 84% — four of the last five Selhurst meetings cleared it, and both defences are leaking this season. The price is about right, so there is no edge, but it is a dependable leg for an accumulator.
🎯
Solid Pick Crystal Palace to score
Odds1.24
We make this about 79%. Palace have scored in four of their last five home games against Newcastle and are scoring freely at Selhurst this season, against a Newcastle defence that shipped four in each of its last two aways. Fairly priced, but a reliable leg.
🎯
Solid Pick Both teams to score — Yes
Odds1.48
About 65% on our read: both back lines are shipping goals, Palace score at home, and Newcastle have found the net even in their heavy defeats. Priced close to fair — a steady leg rather than a standout edge.
🎯
Solid Pick Under 4.5 goals
Odds1.27
About 76%. No Selhurst meeting between these two in the last five topped three goals, which cushions the blowout risk even with both teams leaking. Priced fairly — a dependable low-odds leg.
🟡 Speculative
🟡
Speculative Crystal Palace win
Odds2.92
The outright win carries a small edge (our 36% vs a fair 34%) on home advantage, the Selhurst record and Newcastle's away wobble. The 5–0 loss at Brighton last time out keeps this speculative rather than a confident call.
Same directional view as the double chance and draw-no-bet picks — back one of them, don't stack all three.
⚪ No Edge
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.54Current form says goals, the Selhurst record says tight — they cancel out at this price.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.66Venue history leans under, but both sides' recent scorelines pull the other way.
Over 3.5 goals @ 2.30Priced about right once the low-scoring Selhurst meetings are weighed in.
Total bookings — Over 3.5 @ 1.48Fairly priced; no referee named, so no cards edge to call.
⛔ Avoid
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Newcastle win @ 2.42Market makes them favourites despite two 1–4 away losses and no win at Selhurst in five.
Newcastle to score @ 1.19Priced near 84% but Newcastle have blanked once and managed only one in each heavy defeat.
Draw no bet — Newcastle @ 1.75Backs a struggling away side to win outright; the value is the other way.
Newcastle clean sheet — Yes @ 4.00Palace have scored in four of the last five at home against Newcastle.
Crystal Palace clean sheet — Yes @ 4.60A back line this leaky is not the one to back for a shut-out.
Double chance — Draw or Newcastle @ 1.42Leans on the Newcastle side of the game, which is where the overpricing sits.
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Accumulator builder notes
Same position — one leg only Crystal Palace or Draw, the Draw, Draw-no-bet Crystal Palace and the Crystal Palace win are four ways of backing the same outcome — Newcastle not winning. Put only one of them on a slip.
Equivalent markets Crystal Palace to score and Newcastle clean sheet — No are the same bet; use one. Both teams to score — Yes already contains Palace scoring, so pair it with the game, not with Palace-to-score.
Steadiest leg Over 1.5 goals (1.16) is the most dependable single leg here — around 84% on our read. Over 1.5 and Under 4.5 sit comfortably together on one slip; don't add Under 3.5 on top, as it overlaps.
Analysis confidence
OverallMedium
Odds parsingHigh
Live researchActive
RefereeUnconfirmed
H2H data5 meetings
Anomalies2 flagged
Two signals pull against each other: current form has both defences shipping goals, while the venue-matched Selhurst record is tight and low-scoring. That conflict keeps the total-goals markets at No Edge, with the dependable legs being the high-probability ones (Over 1.5, Palace to score, both teams to score). The firmest read is directional — value on the Palace/Draw side and against a Newcastle win. Referee is unconfirmed, so no cards market is tipped.
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Lottery Regulatory Commission (NLRC).
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