Hull City vs Everton Predictions - October 11, 2026

Betting tips | October 09 2026

Premier League Matchday 6 MKM Stadium, Hull

Hull City vs Everton

Sunday 11 October 2026 · Kick-off: 14:00 WAT (2:00 pm BST)

Live research active — form, head-to-head and context included.

Match context

Newly promoted Hull City (8th, 8 points from 5) host Everton (7th, 9 points from 5) at the MKM Stadium in Gameweek 6. Everton are unbeaten in the league but have drawn three of their five, a notably low-scoring away run. Hull have made a solid start — a 2–0 home win over Manchester United and a 2–2 draw at Chelsea stand out — before a 1–2 defeat at Newcastle last time out. Everton travel as modest favourites (around a 46% chance against 26% for Hull), but the gap is not large against a confident host. Neither side has a midweek European commitment.

Team news

Hull City

Expected XI: 4-3-3 — Tzolakis; Coyle, Hughes, Ajayi, Giles; Crooks, Gourna-Douath, Stroud; Ömür, McBurnie, Belloumi.

Everton

Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Pickford; Maitland-Niles, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Garner, Dewsbury-Hall; Dibling, Grealish, George; Barry.

Everton's defensive solidity and Hull's steady scoring at home shape the goals markets far more than any single selection call; both attacks are expected to be at close to full strength.

Referee intelligence

Referee ⚠️ Unconfirmed Not yet settled for this fixture

Classification Neutral

Cards confidence Low

Implication Cards and bookings markets are left untipped without a settled official.

Form & head-to-head

Hull City — recent form (last 5)

W W D D L

8th on 8 points from 5. Beat Manchester United 2–0 at home and drew 2–2 at Chelsea; most recent result a 1–2 defeat at Newcastle.

Everton — recent form (last 5)

W D D D W

7th on 9 points from 5, unbeaten. Draw-heavy away form (0–0 at Tottenham, 1–1 at Bournemouth); won 1–0 at home to Ipswich most recently.

Head-to-head — Hull City at home (primary dataset)

Date	Home	Score	Away	BTTS	Goals
08 Jan 2022	Hull City	2–3	Everton	Yes	5
30 Dec 2016	Hull City	2–2	Everton	Yes	4
01 Jan 2015	Hull City	2–0	Everton	No	2
11 May 2014	Hull City	0–2	Everton	No	2
25 Nov 2009	Hull City	1–3	Everton	Yes	4

BTTS at MKM: 60% (3 of 5) Avg goals: 3.4/game Over 2.5 rate: 60% At Hull: Everton 3, draw 1, Hull 1

Venue-matched meetings (Hull City at home) are the primary dataset. These are historic fixtures involving much-changed squads, so current form carries the greater weight in the assessment.

Market probability table — key markets

Market	Outcome	Verdict	Odds	My Assessment
Team goals	Everton to score	Solid Pick	1.25	78%
Total goals	Over 1.5	Solid Pick	1.32	73%
Team goals	Hull City to score	Solid Pick	1.46	66%
Match result	Everton	No edge	2.12	46%
Match result	Draw	No edge	3.50	29%
Match result	Hull City	No edge	3.68	27%
Total goals	Under 2.5	No edge	1.83	52%
Total goals	Over 2.5	No edge	1.98	49%
Total goals	Under 3.5	No edge	1.32	72%
Both teams to score	Yes	No edge	1.83	53%
Clean sheet	Everton — Yes	No edge	2.65	35%
Clean sheet	Hull City — Yes	Avoid	3.90	20%
Both teams 2+ goals	Yes	Avoid	5.70	11%

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Betting tips

🎯 Solid Picks — steady legs for a slip

🎯

Solid Pick Team goals — Everton to score

Odds 1.25

Our assessment puts this at 78% — a high-confidence outcome. Everton have found the net in four of their last five, and every venue-matched meeting at Hull has seen them score. The price is fair rather than generous, so there is no mathematical edge, but it is a dependable accumulator leg.

🎯

Solid Pick Total goals — Over 1.5

Odds 1.32

We assess this at 73%. All five venue-matched meetings produced at least two goals, and both sides have scored freely enough this season to clear the line in most games. Priced fairly, so no edge — but a steady leg for a weekend slip.

🎯

Solid Pick Team goals — Hull City to score

Odds 1.46

We assess this at 66%. Hull have scored in four of their last five, including 2–0 at home to Manchester United and 2–2 at Chelsea, and they netted in four of five home meetings with Everton. Fairly priced, with no edge, but a solid home-scoring leg.

⚪ No Edge

These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:

Match result — Everton @ 2.12 Favourites at a fair price; our 46% read matches the market.

Match result — Draw @ 3.50 Everton's draw-heavy run makes this live, but it is priced correctly.

Match result — Hull City @ 3.68 Hull are resilient at home; the price fairly reflects a ~27% chance.

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 Recent form leans low-scoring, but the H2H pushes it back to fair (~52%).

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.98 Supported by the goal-heavy H2H; sits right on the fair line.

Under 3.5 goals @ 1.32 Likely on current form, but already fully in the price.

Both teams to score — Yes @ 1.83 H2H runs 60% BTTS, but the odds already reflect that.

Everton clean sheet — Yes @ 2.65 Plausible, but Hull's home scoring keeps it around a fair 35%.

⛔ Avoid

These outcomes are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:

Hull City clean sheet — Yes @ 3.90 Everton have scored in nearly every game; a full shutout is against the run.

Both teams 2+ goals — Yes @ 5.70 Needs both sides to score twice — a stretch given Everton's low-scoring away run.

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Accumulator builder notes

Correlated legs — pick one All three Solid Picks point the same way — goals in this game. Everton to score, Over 1.5 and Hull City to score rise and fall together, so they are one goals position, not three independent legs. Likewise, Everton to win, Everton double chance and Everton draw-no-bet are a single result position. Put only one selection from this fixture on a single slip.

Steadiest leg Everton to score (1.25) is the single most dependable leg here — a sensible one-selection addition to a multi-game slip.

Conditional flags

ℹ️ The three Solid Picks share the same game and move together — they are not independent legs. Choose one for a slip rather than combining them.

Analysis confidence

Overall Medium

Odds parsing High

Live research Active

Referee Unconfirmed

H2H data 5 at home

Anomalies 2 flagged

The submitted market is efficiently priced: no outcome clears the bar for a Best, Good or Speculative tip. Three high-probability legs stand out for accumulator use — all goals-related and therefore correlated — while two outcomes are clearly overpriced. Everton are favoured but have been low-scoring away, and Hull are solid at home, so the result and total markets sit at fair value. With no settled referee, cards and bookings markets are left untipped.

Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Lottery Regulatory Commission (NLRC).

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Football Insights

Hull City vs Everton Predictions - October 11, 2026

Match context

Team news

Referee intelligence

Form & head-to-head

Market probability table — key markets

Betting tips

Accumulator builder notes

Conditional flags

Analysis confidence