Newly promoted Hull City (8th, 8 points from 5) host Everton (7th, 9 points from 5) at the MKM Stadium in Gameweek 6. Everton are unbeaten in the league but have drawn three of their five, a notably low-scoring away run. Hull have made a solid start — a 2–0 home win over Manchester United and a 2–2 draw at Chelsea stand out — before a 1–2 defeat at Newcastle last time out. Everton travel as modest favourites (around a 46% chance against 26% for Hull), but the gap is not large against a confident host. Neither side has a midweek European commitment.
Expected XI: 4-3-3 — Tzolakis; Coyle, Hughes, Ajayi, Giles; Crooks, Gourna-Douath, Stroud; Ömür, McBurnie, Belloumi.
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Pickford; Maitland-Niles, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Garner, Dewsbury-Hall; Dibling, Grealish, George; Barry.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan 2022 | Hull City | 2–3 | Everton | Yes | 5 |
| 30 Dec 2016 | Hull City | 2–2 | Everton | Yes | 4 |
| 01 Jan 2015 | Hull City | 2–0 | Everton | No | 2 |
| 11 May 2014 | Hull City | 0–2 | Everton | No | 2 |
| 25 Nov 2009 | Hull City | 1–3 | Everton | Yes | 4 |
Venue-matched meetings (Hull City at home) are the primary dataset. These are historic fixtures involving much-changed squads, so current form carries the greater weight in the assessment.
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team goals | Everton to score | Solid Pick | 1.25 | 78% |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | Solid Pick | 1.32 | 73% |
| Team goals | Hull City to score | Solid Pick | 1.46 | 66% |
| Match result | Everton | No edge | 2.12 | 46% |
| Match result | Draw | No edge | 3.50 | 29% |
| Match result | Hull City | No edge | 3.68 | 27% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | No edge | 1.83 | 52% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | No edge | 1.98 | 49% |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | No edge | 1.32 | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes | No edge | 1.83 | 53% |
| Clean sheet | Everton — Yes | No edge | 2.65 | 35% |
| Clean sheet | Hull City — Yes | Avoid | 3.90 | 20% |
| Both teams 2+ goals | Yes | Avoid | 5.70 | 11% |
Our assessment puts this at 78% — a high-confidence outcome. Everton have found the net in four of their last five, and every venue-matched meeting at Hull has seen them score. The price is fair rather than generous, so there is no mathematical edge, but it is a dependable accumulator leg.
We assess this at 73%. All five venue-matched meetings produced at least two goals, and both sides have scored freely enough this season to clear the line in most games. Priced fairly, so no edge — but a steady leg for a weekend slip.
We assess this at 66%. Hull have scored in four of their last five, including 2–0 at home to Manchester United and 2–2 at Chelsea, and they netted in four of five home meetings with Everton. Fairly priced, with no edge, but a solid home-scoring leg.
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
These outcomes are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
The submitted market is efficiently priced: no outcome clears the bar for a Best, Good or Speculative tip. Three high-probability legs stand out for accumulator use — all goals-related and therefore correlated — while two outcomes are clearly overpriced. Everton are favoured but have been low-scoring away, and Hull are solid at home, so the result and total markets sit at fair value. With no settled referee, cards and bookings markets are left untipped.