Match context
An early-season Anfield lunchtime kick-off with new dugouts on both sides — Andoni Iraola has taken charge at Liverpool, Oliver Glasner at Nottingham Forest. Both arrive in patchy form. Liverpool were pegged back to a 2–2 draw at Newcastle, twice coming from behind, and looked leaky through pre-season, shipping three to Monaco and four to Leeds; Forest lost their league opener and have since gone out of the League Cup. The market makes Liverpool clear but not commanding favourites: around 62% to win, the draw near 21% and a Forest win close to 17%. That short home line is no accident — Forest have won their last two visits to Anfield without Liverpool scoring in either, and Liverpool have not beaten them here since 2023. The upshot is a match priced tightly, with the dependable value sitting in double-chance and draw-no-bet legs rather than a standalone Liverpool win.
Team news
Liverpool
Out Hugo Ekitiké — injury
Out Conor Bradley — injury
Out Joe Gomez — injury
Out Giovanni Leoni — injury
Doubtful Curtis Jones — groin
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Alisson; Frimpong, Van Dijk, Jacquet, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak. Rio Ngumoha offers width from the bench.
Nottingham Forest
Out Nicolò Savona — injury
Out Ryan Yates — injury
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Sels; Aina, Milenković, Murillo, N. Williams; Sangaré, Gibbs-White; Ndoye, McAtee, Hutchinson; Igor Jesus. Chris Wood leads the line as the alternative through the middle.
Market impact: Liverpool's reshaped front line around Isak, Wirtz and Gakpo is intact, which keeps the team-goals and total-goals leans supported — but the same defence that leaked in pre-season is why the clean-sheet and win-to-nil lines stay cool. Forest carry a real counter threat through Gibbs-White and Ndoye, so both-teams-to-score stays live.
Referee intelligence
Referee Not announced Not publicly listed at the time of writing
Classification Neutral
Cards confidence Low
Implication Cards and disciplinary lines are carried at reduced confidence until the official is known.
Form & head-to-head
Head-to-head at Anfield — last five league meetings (Forest have won the two most recent)
| Date |
Home |
Score |
Away |
BTTS |
Goals |
| 22 Nov 2025 |
Liverpool |
0–3 |
Nottingham Forest |
No |
3 |
| 14 Sep 2024 |
Liverpool |
0–1 |
Nottingham Forest |
No |
1 |
| 29 Oct 2023 |
Liverpool |
3–0 |
Nottingham Forest |
No |
3 |
| 22 Apr 2023 |
Liverpool |
3–2 |
Nottingham Forest |
Yes |
5 |
| 24 Oct 1998 |
Liverpool |
5–1 |
Nottingham Forest |
Yes |
6 |
Anfield record (last 5): Liverpool 3 · Forest 2 Forest's last two at Anfield: both won, Liverpool scoreless Most recent meeting: Feb 2026, Liverpool won 1–0 away
Market probability table — key markets
| Market |
Outcome |
Verdict |
Odds |
My Assessment |
| Double chance |
Liverpool or draw |
Solid Pick |
1.15 |
83% |
| Total goals |
Over 1.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.19 |
82% |
| Draw no bet |
Liverpool |
Solid Pick |
1.21 |
79% |
| Double chance |
Liverpool or Nottingham |
Solid Pick |
1.20 |
79% |
| Match result |
Liverpool win |
No edge |
1.53 |
62% |
| Total goals |
Under 3.5 |
No edge |
1.54 |
62% |
| Nottingham to score |
Yes |
No edge |
1.56 |
63% |
| Liverpool team goals |
Liverpool over 1.5 |
No edge |
1.53 |
62% |
| Total goals |
Over 2.5 |
No edge |
1.61 |
60% |
| BTTS |
Yes |
No edge |
1.75 |
56% |
| BTTS |
No |
No edge |
2.10 |
44% |
| Asian handicap |
Liverpool -1.5 |
No edge |
2.30 |
39% |
| Home clean sheet |
Liverpool yes |
No edge |
2.40 |
37% |
| Liverpool team goals |
Liverpool over 2.5 |
No edge |
2.60 |
35% |
| Liverpool win to nil |
Yes |
No edge |
2.80 |
32% |
| Away clean sheet |
Nottingham yes |
No edge |
6.25 |
14% |
| Match result |
Draw |
No edge |
4.78 |
21% |
| Both teams to score 2+ |
Yes |
Avoid |
4.99 |
15% |
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Betting tips
🎯 Solid Pick
🎯
Solid Pick Double chance — Liverpool or draw
Odds 1.15
Our model puts Liverpool avoiding defeat at about 83%. It is deliberately the double-chance rather than a straight Liverpool win: Forest have taken all three points on each of their last two Anfield trips, so covering the draw is the disciplined way to lean on a wobbly favourite. Fairly priced rather than generous — no mathematical edge, but the steadiest accumulator anchor this fixture offers. Draw-no-bet at 1.21 is the same underlying call.
🎯
Solid Pick Total goals — Over 1.5
Odds 1.19
Our model lands Over 1.5 goals at roughly 82%. Two leaky defences and a Liverpool attack that has scored twice in each of its last four should carry the total past a single goal comfortably. Priced tight, so treat it as a steady leg rather than a value play — the natural goals partner to a Liverpool-result banker.
🎯
Solid Pick Double chance — Liverpool or Nottingham
Odds 1.20
This wins unless the game is drawn — our model puts a decisive result at about 79%. It is worth singling out because it is the one dependable leg here that is not just another way of backing Liverpool: it survives a Forest win, so it pairs cleanly with a Liverpool-result leg without doubling the same risk. Fairly priced, so the appeal is reliability.
⚪ No Edge
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge at current odds, and none reaches the 65% assessment a Solid Pick needs:
Liverpool win @ 1.53 62% assessed against a fair 64% — the bogey-side record at Anfield keeps this off a straight win, and the double-chance is the safer route.
Nottingham to score @ 1.56 About 63% — Forest have scored on each of their last two Anfield visits, but their thin away scoring elsewhere cancels the edge.
Liverpool over 1.5 goals @ 1.53 62% — the attack keeps scoring twice, but Liverpool were shut out in both recent home meetings with Forest, which caps it right on the price.
Over 2.5 @ 1.61 / Under 3.5 @ 1.54 60% and 62% — leaky defences give a mild lean to goals, but not enough to clear the value floor.
BTTS Yes @ 1.75 / No @ 2.10 Model leans yes near 56%, but the last two Anfield meetings were both one-sided for goals. No clean edge either way.
Liverpool clean sheet @ 2.40 / win to nil @ 2.80 37% and 32% — Forest have scored on both recent Anfield trips, so these are fairly priced at best.
Nottingham clean sheet @ 6.25 The raw model reads 14%, but Liverpool failed to score in both recent home meetings with Forest — the head-to-head argues against a firm lay, so it sits at no edge rather than avoid.
⛔ Avoid
These outcomes are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Both teams to score 2+ @ 4.99 Forest managed a goal in only two of their last five on the road and none in three; both sides reaching two apiece is roughly a 15% event, well short of what 4.99 needs.
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Accumulator builder notes
Equivalent markets Liverpool-or-draw double chance (1.15), draw-no-bet Liverpool (1.21) and the straight Liverpool win (1.53) are the same underlying opinion expressed three ways. Use only one of them on a single slip — stacking them is not real diversification, since they rise and fall together.
Independent leg The Liverpool-or-Nottingham double chance (1.20) is the exception: it only loses on a draw, so it survives a Forest upset and is genuinely independent of the Liverpool-result legs. It is the one Solid Pick you can pair with a Liverpool-result banker without doubling the same risk.
Banker leg Liverpool-or-draw at 1.15 (or draw-no-bet at 1.21) is the steadiest anchor at roughly 79–83% in our model. Pair it with Over 1.5 for a short, high-probability double rather than reaching for the standalone longshots.
Conditional flags
⚠️ Forest are a genuine bogey side at Anfield — they have won their last two visits, 3–0 and 1–0, with Liverpool failing to score in either. The Liverpool-favourite legs carry real upset risk, which is why the picks stop at double-chance and draw-no-bet. ✅ Full-strength Liverpool XI: leans stand. ❌ Heavy rotation or an early Forest goal: the safest legs still hold, but do not upgrade to a straight Liverpool win.
ℹ️ The referee is not yet announced, so all cards and disciplinary lines are carried at reduced confidence and are not tipped here.
Analysis confidence
Overall Medium–High
Odds parsing High
Live research Active
Referee Not announced
H2H data 5 Anfield meetings
Anomalies 1 flagged
Odds parsing and the win-market shape are clean and consistent. The one flagged anomaly is a genuine tension on both-teams-to-score: the goals model leans yes near 56%, while the two most recent Anfield meetings were both won for goals by one side only. That market is left un-tipped rather than forced into a verdict. With both dugouts new this season, tactical reads carry extra uncertainty, and the favourite is efficiently priced — which is why the recommendations cluster in reliable accumulator legs rather than standalone value, and why no No-Edge market clears the 65% bar for promotion.
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP Nigeria).
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