Match context
Matchweek 3 at the City Ground. Nottingham Forest sit 15th on a single point from two games and are still chasing a first win under Oliver Glasner, having drawn 2–2 at Liverpool after an opening home defeat to Leeds. Tottenham arrive bottom of the table — two defeats, no goals scored and five conceded — with Roberto De Zerbi already under early pressure despite heavy summer spending. Both teams are going full strength for points, so no rotation risk is identified.
Team news
Nottingham Forest
Out None reported — squad essentially available
Expected XI (3-4-2-1): Sels; Milenkovic, Murillo, Cunha; N. Williams, Schlager, McAtee, Aina; Gibbs-White, Ndoye; Igor Jesus
Tottenham
Out Xavi Simons (injury) · Wilson Odobert (injury)
Doubtful James Maddison · Pape Matar Sarr · Dejan Kulusevski
Expected XI (4-2-3-1): Kinsky; Porro, van Hecke, van de Ven, Udogie; Bentancur, Bergvall; forward line built around Marmoush
Both attacks have been blank in the league this season — Forest scoreless in both home games, Tottenham scoreless in both league games — and the last two City Ground meetings finished as Forest shut-outs. That is why Both Teams To Score leans No here despite two leaky defences, and why Forest's own clean-sheet prices sit around fair rather than being value.
Referee intelligence
Referee Craig Pawson Select Group 1
Classification Medium Career ~3.8/game; leaned under last season
Cards confidence Medium
Implication Recent matches have run under; no clear Over-cards edge here.
Form & head-to-head
Head-to-head — Nottingham Forest at home (primary)
| Date |
Home |
Score |
Away |
BTTS |
Goals |
| 14 Dec 2025 |
Nottingham Forest |
3–0 |
Tottenham |
No |
3 |
| 26 Dec 2024 |
Nottingham Forest |
1–0 |
Tottenham |
No |
1 |
City Ground BTTS: 0% (last 2) Avg goals there: 2.0/game Overall: Forest won last 4
Small venue-matched sample — treat as indicative. Across all venues Forest have taken the last four meetings (0–3, 3–0, 2–1, 1–0), with Tottenham's only recent win coming in April 2024. Tottenham failed to score in each of the last two visits to the City Ground.
Market probability table — key markets
| Market |
Outcome |
Verdict |
Odds |
My Assessment |
| Draw No Bet |
Nottingham Forest |
Good Bet |
1.74 |
61% |
| Both Teams To Score |
No |
Good Bet |
2.10 |
51% |
| Match result |
Nottingham Forest win |
Speculative |
2.47 |
43% |
| Over/Under 1.5 |
Over 1.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.30 |
75% |
| Over/Under 3.5 |
Under 3.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.36 |
71% |
| Match result |
Draw |
No edge |
3.52 |
29% |
| Over/Under 2.5 |
Over 2.5 |
No edge |
1.93 |
50% |
| Clean sheet — Forest |
Yes |
No edge |
3.10 |
31% |
| Total bookings |
Over 3.5 |
No edge |
1.82 |
50% |
| Match result |
Tottenham win |
Avoid |
3.02 |
28% |
| Both Teams To Score |
Yes |
Avoid |
1.74 |
49% |
Free game-week tips Get the bets most likely to win — free. Every game week — our strongest picks and the reason behind each one, straight to your inbox. No fake promises. Show me the best bets Free. Unsubscribe anytime. 18+. Bet responsibly.
Betting tips
🔵 Good Bet
🔵
Good Bet Draw No Bet — Nottingham Forest
Odds 1.74
Forest have won each of the last four meetings with Tottenham, including a 3–0 and a 1–0 at the City Ground where Spurs never scored. Tottenham arrive bottom of the table, without a league goal in two games and beaten in each of the last four against Forest. Draw No Bet strips out the draw risk — sensible cover on a home side whose own goals have dried up, which is why this stays Medium rather than higher.
🔵
Good Bet Both Teams To Score — No
Odds 2.10
Both attacks have gone missing in the league — Forest scoreless in both home games, Tottenham scoreless in both of theirs — and every competitive league game either side has played this season has seen at least one team blanked. The last two City Ground meetings finished 3–0 and 1–0, both with Spurs kept out. Leaky defences are the counter-argument, so this is Medium, not a lock.
🟡 Speculative
🟡
Speculative Match result — Nottingham Forest win
Odds 2.47
The higher-odds route to the same home lean. The head-to-head and Tottenham's goalless start point Forest's way, but their own scoreless home run makes the outright win less secure than Draw No Bet.
Same directional call as the Draw No Bet pick above — the extra return comes with the draw back in play. Back one, not both, on a single slip.
🎯 Solid Pick
🎯
Solid Pick Over 1.5 goals
Odds 1.30
Our assessment puts this at about 75% — four of these two teams' last five competitive games cleared two goals, and both defences are leaking. The price is fair, so there is no mathematical edge, but at least two goals is a reliable leg for an accumulator.
🎯
Solid Pick Under 3.5 goals
Odds 1.36
Our assessment puts this at about 71%. With both attacks misfiring in the league, four-plus goals is the exception rather than the rule here. Priced correctly, so no edge — but a steady leg for a slip aiming at a mid-scoring game.
⚪ No Edge
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
Draw @ 3.52 Priced about right at roughly our 29% read.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.93 Expected total sits right on the line — no gap either way.
Nottingham Forest clean sheet — Yes @ 3.10 Spurs' goalless run and Forest's leaky defence cancel out — fairly priced.
Nottingham Forest win to nil — Yes @ 4.30 Same balance — a fair price once Forest's own conceding is factored in.
Total bookings Over 3.5 @ 1.82 A coin-flip on a referee whose recent games have run under.
⛔ Avoid
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Tottenham win @ 3.02 No league goal yet, no clean sheets, and beaten in each of the last four against Forest — the price overstates their chances here.
Both Teams To Score — Yes @ 1.74 With both sides scoreless in the league and Spurs blanked in the last two here, this short price is against the run of play.
Before you go Get free football tips by email. Every game week — our best picks and the reason behind each one, by email. Get free tips Free. Unsubscribe anytime. 18+. Bet responsibly.
Accumulator builder notes
Same position Nottingham Forest to win and Nottingham Forest (Draw No Bet) are the same opinion at two prices — put one on your slip, not both.
Overlapping picks Forest (Draw No Bet) and Both Teams To Score — No point the same way — a Forest win to nil lands both. They lean on the same outcome, so treat them as one idea rather than two independent legs.
Steady legs Over 1.5 @ 1.30 (~75%) and Under 3.5 @ 1.36 (~71%) are the reliable legs for a slip. They describe a mid-scoring game, so pick the one that fits your slip rather than stacking both.
Conditional flags
⚠️ ✅ If Forest carry the sharpness they showed at Anfield into their home form, the Draw No Bet lean firms toward the outright win. ❌ If their scoreless home run continues, the draw comes back into play — which is exactly why the safer expression here is Draw No Bet rather than the straight win.
ℹ️ If Tottenham line up without Maddison and Kulusevski, their goalless league run is more likely to continue — that strengthens the Both Teams To Score — No lean and keeps their outright price a fade.
Analysis confidence
Overall Medium
Odds parsing High
Live research Active
Referee Appointed
H2H data 5 meetings
Anomalies 1 flagged
The strongest reads here come from both teams' scoring droughts — Forest scoreless at home, Tottenham scoreless in the league — set against Forest's four-game winning run in this fixture, which is why the result and Both Teams To Score leans carry Medium confidence rather than higher. Odds parsed cleanly across the main, goals, bookings and combo markets. One anomaly: the player-booking feed carried an unreliable squad list, so individual player-card markets were set aside rather than assessed.
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Lottery Regulatory Commission (NLRC).
.png?width=352&name=Football%20Poster%20Prom%20(19).png)
.webp?width=352&name=OIF%20(4).webp)
.webp?width=352&name=download%20(3).webp)
Share on X
Share on WhatsApp
Share on Facebook
Share on Instagram
Share via email
