Tottenham sit 14th on 9 points after eight games and arrive on the back of a 2–0 win at Chelsea, but their home league form is patchy — one win in their last four at this ground, with blanks against Everton and Newcastle. Crystal Palace are 17th on 7 points with the leakiest defence in the division (19 conceded), beaten 5–0 at Brighton this month, and come in on a short turnaround: a midweek EFL Cup tie last played on 28 October, on top of Europa League football. The twist is the head-to-head — Palace have won the last two meetings at Tottenham.
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Kinsky; Porro, Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Robertson; Tonali, Fernandes; Kudus, Marmoush, Tel; Solanke
Expected XI: 3-4-2-1 — Henderson; Richards, Disasi, Canvot; Khalaili, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; McNeil, Pino; Mateta
| Date | Home | Score | Away | BTTS | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar 2026 | Tottenham | 1–3 | Crystal Palace | Yes | 4 |
| 11 May 2025 | Tottenham | 0–2 | Crystal Palace | No | 2 |
| 02 Mar 2024 | Tottenham | 3–1 | Crystal Palace | Yes | 4 |
| 06 May 2023 | Tottenham | 1–0 | Crystal Palace | No | 1 |
| 26 Dec 2021 | Tottenham | 3–0 | Crystal Palace | No | 3 |
| Market | Outcome | Verdict | Odds | My Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | Good Bet | 2.15 | 49% |
| Over/Under 1.5 | Over 1.5 | Solid Pick | 1.18 | 82% |
| Crystal Palace goals | Under 1.5 | Solid Pick | 1.33 | 75% |
| Double Chance | Tottenham or Draw | Solid Pick | 1.17 | 81% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | No edge | 1.59 | 61% |
| Match result | Crystal Palace win | No edge | 5.63 | 19% |
| Crystal Palace +1 | Handicap | No edge | 1.91 | 51% |
| Match result | Tottenham win | Avoid | 1.60 | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes | Avoid | 1.70 | 50% |
| Tottenham to score | Over 0.5 | Avoid | 1.11 | 82% |
| Asian Handicap -1 | Tottenham -1 | Avoid | 1.90 | 42% |
| Match cards | 4 or more | Avoid | 1.55 | 54% |
The result. The market makes Spurs a clear favourite at 1.60, but the evidence is softer than that: one home league win in four, two home blanks, and a Palace side that has won the last two visits here. We make Tottenham to win closer to 58% — so the short price is one to leave, not back, and the draw-no-bet and win-by-two lines look worse still.
Goals. These fixtures produce goals — 2.8 a game across the last five meetings and Over 2.5 in three of them — and Palace are leaking heavily, so Over 1.5 is a dependable leg. The sharper angle sits with Palace’s own output: without Sarr, and with a goal or fewer in four of their last five away, Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals holds up, and that feeds the standout — both teams to score, No.
Cards. Michael Oliver is running below the league card average and Tottenham are the third-lowest-booked side in the division, so the over-cards lines (4+, 5+) look generous to the layer — we are against them.
Palace are the reason: without Sarr, they have managed a goal or fewer in four of their last five away games, and three of the last five meetings at this ground saw a team fail to score. We make “No” nearer 49% than the 44% the price implies. The risk is that Spurs have leaked at home (2–3 Villa, 0–2 Newcastle), so it is value rather than a lock.
The last five meetings here averaged 2.8 goals and only one finished under 1.5. Add Palace’s porous defence and two-plus goals is a reliable leg. No real edge at the price, but dependable.
Palace arrive without Sarr, with Strand Larsen a doubt, and have scored once or not at all in four of their last five on the road. We make them staying under two goals around 75% — fairly priced, but a trustworthy leg.
Backing Spurs to win outright is skinny value, but Spurs to simply avoid defeat sits about right at this price — we have it near 81%. Worth noting the caveat: Palace have won their last two trips here, so treat it as a steady leg rather than a certainty.
Assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge either way:
Overpriced at current odds — we’d skip these:
This read uses the odds market, form and head-to-head, team news, the referee appointment and league standings. The strongest angle is Palace’s weak away scoring, which drives the both-teams-to-score and Palace-goals calls. Confidence is held at Medium because the head-to-head record spans several managers and is indicative only, and the leaky-at-home Spurs defence is a live risk to the “No” lean. The two anomalies are a Spurs result position priced three ways and a cluster of correlated low-scoring markets — both handled in the accumulator notes.