Match context
Tottenham sit 14th on 9 points after eight games and arrive on the back of a 2–0 win at Chelsea, but their home league form is patchy — one win in their last four at this ground, with blanks against Everton and Newcastle. Crystal Palace are 17th on 7 points with the leakiest defence in the division (19 conceded), beaten 5–0 at Brighton this month, and come in on a short turnaround: a midweek EFL Cup tie last played on 28 October, on top of Europa League football. The twist is the head-to-head — Palace have won the last two meetings at Tottenham.
Team news
Tottenham
Out Rodrigo Bentancur (final game of suspension)
Out Xavi Simons (knee), Mykhailo Mudryk (ankle)
Out Wilson Odobert (knee), Sávio (muscle)
Doubtful James Maddison (groin), Tosin Adarabioyo (calf)
Doubtful Destiny Udogie (knee), Lucas Bergvall (knee)
Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Kinsky; Porro, Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Robertson; Tonali, Fernandes; Kudus, Marmoush, Tel; Solanke
Crystal Palace
Out Ismaïla Sarr (groin)
Out Chadi Riad (knee), Takehiro Tomiyasu (calf)
Doubtful Jørgen Strand Larsen (knock)
Doubtful Quinten Timber (knock)
Expected XI: 3-4-2-1 — Henderson; Richards, Disasi, Canvot; Khalaili, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; McNeil, Pino; Mateta
Palace travel without their main wide threat in Sarr and with a doubt over Strand Larsen, thinning an away attack that has mustered one goal or none in each of its last three on the road — that is the engine room of the both-teams-to-score and Palace-goals reads. Spurs lose creativity with Simons out and Maddison a doubt, which, with their home blanks, keeps a lid on Tottenham team-total and handicap lines.
Referee intelligence
Referee Michael Oliver VAR: Jarred Gillett
Cards per game ~3.4 yellows / game (below average)
Classification Low
Implication A below-average-cards official and the division’s third-lowest-booked home side give no support to over-cards markets.
Form & head-to-head
Head-to-head — Tottenham at home (last 5 meetings)
| Date |
Home |
Score |
Away |
BTTS |
Goals |
| 05 Mar 2026 |
Tottenham |
1–3 |
Crystal Palace |
Yes |
4 |
| 11 May 2025 |
Tottenham |
0–2 |
Crystal Palace |
No |
2 |
| 02 Mar 2024 |
Tottenham |
3–1 |
Crystal Palace |
Yes |
4 |
| 06 May 2023 |
Tottenham |
1–0 |
Crystal Palace |
No |
1 |
| 26 Dec 2021 |
Tottenham |
3–0 |
Crystal Palace |
No |
3 |
Record (Spurs home): 3 Spurs / 2 Palace / 0 draws BTTS rate: 40% Avg goals: 2.8/game Over 2.5: 60%
Palace have won the two most recent of these, though three different managers have come and gone across the set — the record is indicative, not decisive.
Market probability table — key markets
| Market |
Outcome |
Verdict |
Odds |
My Assessment |
| Both teams to score |
No |
Good Bet |
2.15 |
49% |
| Over/Under 1.5 |
Over 1.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.18 |
82% |
| Crystal Palace goals |
Under 1.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.33 |
75% |
| Double Chance |
Tottenham or Draw |
Solid Pick |
1.17 |
81% |
| Over/Under 2.5 |
Over 2.5 |
No edge |
1.59 |
61% |
| Match result |
Crystal Palace win |
No edge |
5.63 |
19% |
| Crystal Palace +1 |
Handicap |
No edge |
1.91 |
51% |
| Match result |
Tottenham win |
Avoid |
1.60 |
58% |
| Both teams to score |
Yes |
Avoid |
1.70 |
50% |
| Tottenham to score |
Over 0.5 |
Avoid |
1.11 |
82% |
| Asian Handicap -1 |
Tottenham -1 |
Avoid |
1.90 |
42% |
| Match cards |
4 or more |
Avoid |
1.55 |
54% |
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Market analysis
The result. The market makes Spurs a clear favourite at 1.60, but the evidence is softer than that: one home league win in four, two home blanks, and a Palace side that has won the last two visits here. We make Tottenham to win closer to 58% — so the short price is one to leave, not back, and the draw-no-bet and win-by-two lines look worse still.
Goals. These fixtures produce goals — 2.8 a game across the last five meetings and Over 2.5 in three of them — and Palace are leaking heavily, so Over 1.5 is a dependable leg. The sharper angle sits with Palace’s own output: without Sarr, and with a goal or fewer in four of their last five away, Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals holds up, and that feeds the standout — both teams to score, No.
Cards. Michael Oliver is running below the league card average and Tottenham are the third-lowest-booked side in the division, so the over-cards lines (4+, 5+) look generous to the layer — we are against them.
Betting tips
🔵 Good Bet
🔵
Good Bet Both Teams to Score — No
Odds2.15
Palace are the reason: without Sarr, they have managed a goal or fewer in four of their last five away games, and three of the last five meetings at this ground saw a team fail to score. We make “No” nearer 49% than the 44% the price implies. The risk is that Spurs have leaked at home (2–3 Villa, 0–2 Newcastle), so it is value rather than a lock.
🎯 Solid Picks — steady legs for a slip
🎯
Solid Pick Over 1.5 goals
Odds1.18
The last five meetings here averaged 2.8 goals and only one finished under 1.5. Add Palace’s porous defence and two-plus goals is a reliable leg. No real edge at the price, but dependable.
🎯
Solid Pick Crystal Palace Under 1.5 goals
Odds1.33
Palace arrive without Sarr, with Strand Larsen a doubt, and have scored once or not at all in four of their last five on the road. We make them staying under two goals around 75% — fairly priced, but a trustworthy leg.
🎯
Solid Pick Double Chance — Tottenham or Draw
Odds1.17
Backing Spurs to win outright is skinny value, but Spurs to simply avoid defeat sits about right at this price — we have it near 81%. Worth noting the caveat: Palace have won their last two trips here, so treat it as a steady leg rather than a certainty.
⚪ No Edge
Assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge either way:
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.59Priced about right for this fixture.
Draw @ 4.64Live, but no clear edge.
Crystal Palace win @ 5.63H2H helps, awful form hurts — it cancels out.
Crystal Palace +1 @ 1.91Line sits close to a true coin-flip.
Crystal Palace draw-no-bet @ 4.10Fairly priced.
⛔ Avoid
Overpriced at current odds — we’d skip these:
Tottenham win @ 1.60One home league win in four; Palace won the last two here.
Both teams to score — Yes @ 1.70Palace’s blunted away attack works against it.
Tottenham to score @ 1.11Spurs blanked at home twice recently — not the lock it looks.
Tottenham -1 @ 1.90Thin home margins; a two-goal win isn’t reliable.
Over 3.5 goals @ 2.45Overstates the goal glut.
Match cards 4+ @ 1.55Below-average official, low-booked home side.
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Accumulator builder notes
One result position “Tottenham or Draw” (1.17), “Tottenham draw-no-bet” (1.24) and “Tottenham win” (1.60) are one opinion priced three ways. Pick a single version for your slip — stacking them is not real cover.
Same low-Palace-scoring game Both teams to score — No, Crystal Palace under 1.5, and Over 1.5 all describe the same shape (Spurs edge a low-Palace-scoring game). They are good singles, but don’t combine them as separate legs on one slip.
Steady leg Over 1.5 goals at 1.18 is the most dependable single here for a weekend slip.
Analysis confidence
OverallMedium
Odds parsingHigh
Live researchActive
RefereeMichael Oliver
H2H data5 meetings (indicative)
Anomalies2 flagged
This read uses the odds market, form and head-to-head, team news, the referee appointment and league standings. The strongest angle is Palace’s weak away scoring, which drives the both-teams-to-score and Palace-goals calls. Confidence is held at Medium because the head-to-head record spans several managers and is indicative only, and the leaky-at-home Spurs defence is a live risk to the “No” lean. The two anomalies are a Spurs result position priced three ways and a cluster of correlated low-scoring markets — both handled in the accumulator notes.
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact NRGP Nigeria · nrgpnigeria.org · 18+.
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