Match context
Newcastle sit 8th on 11 points, a single point above 11th-placed Everton on 10 — a mid-table meeting with both sides looking up toward the European places rather than fretting about either end. Newcastle's home form has been open but leaky, with both teams scoring in four of their last five at St James' Park, while Everton have been tight and low-scoring on the road — three draws in their last four league away games, at 0.75 goals a game. The wrinkle is the head-to-head: Everton have won their last two league visits to Newcastle. Both played in midweek, but with four days before kick-off there is no significant rotation risk.
Team news
Newcastle United
OutEwen Jaouen (thigh), Tino Livramento (knee)
DoubtfulMatias Fernandez-Pardo (illness), Lewis Miley (knock)
Expected XI: 4-3-3 — Gonzalez, Joelinton and Wissa all back in the mix, with Wissa, Barnes and Osula leading a near-full-strength front line.
Everton
DoubtfulJarrad Branthwaite (concussion protocols), Jack Grealish (fitness)
Expected XI: Moyes likely to set up pragmatically around Pickford, Tarkowski, Garner and Dewsbury-Hall, with Dibling the spark in attack.
Everton's shy away attack points to a low-scoring game and value on the Everton-under read. Newcastle's leaky home defence is the counterweight on both-teams-to-score, and Everton's strong recent record here keeps the result open.
Referee intelligence
RefereeNot listed—
Classification—
Cards confidence—
ImplicationNo official listed, so cards are not part of this analysis.
Form & head-to-head
Head-to-head — Newcastle at home (primary dataset)
| Date |
Home |
Score |
Away |
BTTS |
Goals |
| 28 Feb 2026 |
Newcastle |
2–3 |
Everton |
Yes |
5 |
| 25 May 2025 |
Newcastle |
0–1 |
Everton |
No |
1 |
| 02 Apr 2024 |
Newcastle |
1–1 |
Everton |
Yes |
2 |
| 19 Oct 2022 |
Newcastle |
1–0 |
Everton |
No |
1 |
St James' BTTS rate: 50% Avg goals: 2.3/game Over 2.5 rate: 25%
All meetings combined (supplementary, five games including a pre-season friendly): both teams scored 60%, average 2.6 goals, Everton unbeaten in four of five.
Market probability table — all assessed markets
| Market |
Outcome |
Verdict |
Odds |
My Assessment |
| Match result |
Newcastle win |
No edge |
2.38 |
41% |
| Match result |
Draw |
Speculative |
3.63 |
30% |
| Match result |
Everton win |
No edge |
2.98 |
33% |
| Double chance |
Newcastle or draw |
No edge |
1.40 |
69% |
| Double chance |
Newcastle or Everton |
Avoid |
1.31 |
69% |
| Double chance |
Draw or Everton |
No edge |
1.58 |
61% |
| Draw no bet |
Newcastle |
No edge |
1.72 |
56% |
| Draw no bet |
Everton |
No edge |
2.15 |
44% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 0.5 |
Over 0.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.03 |
93% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 0.5 |
Under 0.5 |
Avoid |
12.00 |
7% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 1.5 |
Over 1.5 |
Avoid |
1.21 |
75% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 1.5 |
Under 1.5 |
No edge |
4.40 |
25% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 2.5 |
Over 2.5 |
Avoid |
1.68 |
47% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 2.5 |
Under 2.5 |
Good Bet |
2.20 |
53% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 3.5 |
Over 3.5 |
Avoid |
2.65 |
28% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 3.5 |
Under 3.5 |
Good Bet |
1.49 |
72% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 4.5 |
Over 4.5 |
Avoid |
4.80 |
17% |
| Total goals — Over/Under 4.5 |
Under 4.5 |
No edge |
1.19 |
83% |
| Both teams to score |
Yes |
Avoid |
1.59 |
57% |
| Both teams to score |
No |
Speculative |
2.35 |
43% |
| Everton team goals — O/U 1.5 |
Everton under 1.5 |
Good Bet |
1.61 |
66% |
| Everton team goals — O/U 1.5 |
Everton over 1.5 |
Avoid |
2.35 |
34% |
| Newcastle team goals — O/U 1.5 |
Newcastle under 1.5 |
No edge |
1.79 |
55% |
| Newcastle team goals — O/U 1.5 |
Newcastle over 1.5 |
Avoid |
2.05 |
45% |
| Newcastle clean sheet |
Yes |
Avoid |
3.50 |
24% |
| Newcastle clean sheet |
No |
No edge |
1.27 |
73% |
| Everton clean sheet |
Yes |
Avoid |
4.10 |
21% |
| Everton clean sheet |
No |
Solid Pick |
1.21 |
79% |
| Newcastle win to nil |
Yes |
Avoid |
4.60 |
18% |
| Everton win to nil |
Yes |
Avoid |
5.70 |
15% |
| First-half both teams to score |
No |
Speculative |
1.26 |
78% |
| First-half both teams to score |
Yes |
Avoid |
3.90 |
22% |
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Market analysis
Goals. This is the firmest part of the card. The last four league games at St James' Park averaged 2.3 goals and only one went over 2.5, and Everton's away trips have been low-scoring all season. That outweighs Newcastle's generally open home games and points squarely at the unders.
Result. Everton have won their last two league visits here and are hard to beat at this ground, so there's no edge on the home win and we rate the away win as live rather than one to oppose. Both sides are draw-prone this season, which keeps the draw in play as a speculative call. On an even game we down-weight the favourite clean-sheet and win-to-nil markets, which is why those land without an edge.
Both teams to score. Everton's thin away output (0.75 goals a game) is the case for the No, but Newcastle concede at home more often than not and Everton have scored on recent visits here — so it's a mild lean, not a strong one.
Betting tips
🔵 Good Bet
🔵
Good BetUnder 2.5 goals
Odds2.20
The last four league games at St James' Park have averaged 2.3 goals, with only one going over 2.5. Add Everton's low-scoring away trips and our model lands the match around 2.5 — under where the price sits.
🔵
Good BetUnder 3.5 goals
Odds1.49
Three of the last four meetings here finished with two goals or fewer. A near-banker that sits on the same tight, low-scoring read. Short odds, but the number backs it.
🔵
Good BetEverton under 1.5 team goals
Odds1.61
Everton manage 0.75 goals a game in the league away from home and have scored one or none in three of their last four road games. They rarely fill their boots on their travels.
🟡 Speculative
🟡
SpeculativeMatch result — Draw
Odds3.63
Both sides are draw-prone this season — Everton have drawn three of four away, Newcastle two of their home games. The catch is the head-to-head: Everton have tended to win here rather than share the points, so this is a lean, not a strong call.
Everton's recent record at Newcastle keeps this speculative.
🟡
SpeculativeBoth teams to score — No
Odds2.35
Everton's away attack is shy, which is the case for the No. But Newcastle concede at home more often than not and Everton have found the net on recent visits here, so it is only a mild lean.
Newcastle's leaky home form limits the edge.
🟡
SpeculativeFirst-half both teams to score — No
Odds1.26
Everton are slow starters away and these fixtures often open cagily. The short price keeps it a filler leg rather than a core play.
Low odds for the risk — a slip-filler at best.
🎯 Solid Pick
🎯
Solid PickNewcastle to score — over 0.5 team goals
Odds1.22
Newcastle have scored in four of their last five at home. No edge in the price, but a dependable leg for a slip.
🎯
Solid PickOver 0.5 total goals
Odds1.03
A goal in this game is about as reliable as it gets — our read sits near 93%. Fairly priced, but a steady builder.
⚪ No Edge
Assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge:
Newcastle win @ 2.38Slight favourites, but patchy home form leaves the price about right.
Everton win @ 2.98Everton have won their last two league visits here, so the price is fair — live, but no edge to back.
Newcastle or draw @ 1.40Everton's record at this ground takes the value out of the home side avoiding defeat.
Draw or Everton @ 1.58Fairly priced once Everton's away strength here is accounted for.
Under 1.5 goals @ 4.40Our read leans low, but one-or-fewer goals is still priced fairly for the risk.
Under 4.5 goals @ 1.19Near-certain and priced as such — nothing to gain.
⛔ Avoid
Overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.68The last four meetings here produced one over in four — the price assumes a more open game than the matchup gives.
Over 3.5 goals @ 2.65Needs a high-scoring game these tight fixtures rarely deliver.
Both teams to score — Yes @ 1.59Leans on Everton's shy away attack delivering — too short for that.
Everton over 1.5 team goals @ 2.35Two-plus Everton goals away is a stretch they manage once in a while, not reliably.
Newcastle or Everton (no draw) @ 1.31Two draw-prone sides make the no-draw price poor value.
Newcastle win to nil @ 4.60Newcastle concede at home too often, and on an even game we down-weight clean-sheet calls.
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Accumulator builder notes
One read, several markets Under 2.5, Under 3.5, Everton under 1.5 and both-teams-to-score No all lean on the same thing — a tight, low-scoring game. They rise and fall together, so pick one for your slip rather than stacking them.
Steady legs If you want dependable builders for a bigger slip: Newcastle to score (1.22) and a goal in the game at all (1.03). No edge in the price, but about as reliable as legs get.
Conditional flags
ℹ️ If Everton name an attacking line-up with Grealish from the start, the low-scoring reads carry a little less weight.
Analysis confidence
OverallMedium
Odds parsingHigh
Live researchActive
RefereeNot listed
H2H data4 meetings
Anomalies0 flagged
Overall confidence is Medium. The odds read cleanly, live research is current, and the form and head-to-head here draw on each side's home and away run plus the recent meetings. The goals-based value is the firmest part — the last four league games at St James' Park averaged 2.3 goals and only one went over 2.5. The result is left open: Everton have won their last two league visits, so the home win carries no edge and the away win is live rather than one to oppose. The sides also met in a cup tie three days earlier at Everton's ground, a 3-1 Everton win with heavily rotated teams, which sits outside this read as a different competition and venue.
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP) — nrgpnigeria.org. 18+ only.
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