Match context
Bournemouth sit 15th on 3 points from 4 games — three draws and one defeat, no win yet. They have scored 6 and let in 7. Liverpool are on 6 points from 4 games, unbeaten, with 6 scored and 4 let in. The league table makes this look closer than the wider picture does.
Across all competitions Liverpool have won three of their last five — 3–1 against Tottenham in the cup on Tuesday, 2–1 against Atlético Madrid in Europe, and 2–0 at Ipswich. Their two dropped results were a 2–2 at home to Nottingham Forest and a goalless home draw with Fulham. Bournemouth have one win in five, and it came 4–0 against lower-league Lincoln in the cup.
The calendar matters. Bournemouth are in San Sebastián on Thursday for the first European fixture in the club's history, then fly home to kick off at 15:00 local on Sunday. Liverpool played their cup tie on Tuesday and have five clear days with no travel. Marco Rose is in his first season at Bournemouth, Andoni Iraola in his first at Liverpool.
Team news
Bournemouth
Out Eli Kroupi — ankle and foot
Out Amine Adli — calf
Out Julian Araujo — thigh
Out Veljko Milosavljevic — knee
Liverpool
Out Hugo Ekitike — calf
Out Conor Bradley — knee
Out Giovanni Leoni — knee
Out Federico Chiesa — lower back
Doubtful Joe Gomez — fitness
Bournemouth lose two of their attacking options in Kroupi and Adli, which bites hardest on the home side's goal count. Liverpool lose a striker in Ekitike but keep Alexander Isak, their top scorer with 3 goals from 12 shots.
Referee intelligence
Referee Not listed No official attached to this fixture
Classification Low
Profile data None on file
Implication No refereeing profile feeds any of the numbers below.
Form & head-to-head
Head-to-head — last 5 meetings at Bournemouth (primary dataset)
| Date |
Home |
Score |
Away |
BTTS |
Goals |
| 24 Jan 2026 |
Bournemouth |
3–2 |
Liverpool |
Yes |
5 |
| 01 Feb 2025 |
Bournemouth |
0–2 |
Liverpool |
No |
2 |
| 21 Jan 2024 |
Bournemouth |
0–4 |
Liverpool |
No |
4 |
| 01 Nov 2023 |
Bournemouth |
1–2 |
Liverpool |
Yes |
3 |
| 11 Mar 2023 |
Bournemouth |
1–0 |
Liverpool |
No |
1 |
BTTS rate: 42% Avg goals: 3.1/game Over 2.5 rate: 62% Bournemouth: 1.1 goals/game Liverpool: 2.1 goals/game
Rates are weighted towards the most recent meetings. The 2023 fixture was a cup tie; the other four were league games. Bournemouth have been held to one goal or fewer in four of these five, and shut out completely in two.
Market probability table — key markets
| Market |
Outcome |
Verdict |
Odds |
My Assessment |
| Bournemouth total goals |
Under 1.5 |
Best Bet |
1.74 |
70% |
| Both teams to score |
No |
Good Bet |
2.75 |
45% |
| Total goals (whole line) |
Under 3 |
Good Bet |
2.15 |
54% |
| Total goals |
Under 4.5 |
Good Bet |
1.29 |
84% |
| Total goals |
Under 3.5 |
Good Bet |
1.70 |
64% |
| Total goals (whole line) |
Under 2 |
Good Bet |
4.70 |
28% |
| Total goals |
Under 2.5 |
Good Bet |
2.65 |
43% |
| Draw no bet |
Liverpool |
Good Bet |
1.65 |
64% |
| Match result |
Liverpool win |
Good Bet |
2.22 |
48% |
| Double chance |
Draw or Liverpool |
Good Bet |
1.39 |
73% |
| Liverpool total goals |
Over 1.5 |
Speculative |
1.77 |
59% |
| Goal range |
0–1 goals |
Speculative |
5.60 |
22% |
| Total goals |
Under 1.5 |
Speculative |
5.75 |
22% |
| Goal range |
2–3 goals |
Speculative |
2.15 |
46% |
| Bournemouth total goals |
Under 0.5 |
Speculative |
4.10 |
28% |
| Liverpool clean sheet |
Yes |
Speculative |
4.00 |
28% |
| Liverpool win to nil |
Yes |
Speculative |
5.00 |
24% |
| Liverpool total goals |
Over 0.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.16 |
81% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet |
No |
Solid Pick |
1.15 |
81% |
| Double chance |
Bournemouth or Liverpool |
Solid Pick |
1.28 |
75% |
| Asian handicap |
Bournemouth +1.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.25 |
74% |
| Total goals |
Over 0.5 |
Solid Pick |
1.01 |
94% |
| Match result |
Draw |
No edge |
3.85 |
25% |
| Asian handicap |
Liverpool −1.5 |
No edge |
3.70 |
26% |
| Bournemouth clean sheet |
Yes |
No edge |
5.00 |
19% |
| Bournemouth total goals |
Over 1.5 |
Avoid |
2.10 |
30% |
| Bournemouth to score in both halves |
Yes |
Avoid |
3.10 |
18% |
| Both teams to score |
Yes |
Avoid |
1.46 |
55% |
| Total goals |
Over 4.5 |
Avoid |
3.50 |
16% |
| Total goals (whole line) |
Over 3 |
Avoid |
1.70 |
46% |
| Liverpool to score in both halves |
Yes |
Avoid |
2.55 |
26% |
| Total goals |
Over 3.5 |
Avoid |
2.10 |
36% |
| Total goals (whole line) |
Over 2 |
Avoid |
1.18 |
72% |
| Goal range |
4–6 goals |
Avoid |
2.35 |
30% |
| Total goals |
Over 2.5 |
Avoid |
1.46 |
57% |
| Double chance |
Bournemouth or Draw |
Avoid |
1.65 |
52% |
| Liverpool total goals |
Under 1.5 |
Avoid |
2.05 |
41% |
| Total goals |
Over 1.5 |
Avoid |
1.13 |
78% |
| Bournemouth total goals |
Over 0.5 |
Avoid |
1.24 |
72% |
| Liverpool win to nil |
No |
Avoid |
1.18 |
76% |
| Match result |
Bournemouth win |
Avoid |
3.04 |
27% |
| Liverpool clean sheet |
No |
Avoid |
1.22 |
72% |
| Asian handicap |
Bournemouth +0.5 |
Avoid |
1.67 |
52% |
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Market analysis
Bournemouth total goals. This is where the head-to-head speaks loudest. Across the last five meetings at this ground Bournemouth have scored 1.1 goals a game. They were held to one or fewer in four of the five and shut out completely in two. Their league scoring at home this season is 1 and 2. Kroupi and Adli are both out, and the side plays in Spain on Thursday before a Sunday afternoon kick-off. Everything points to a single-goal afternoon for the hosts.
Both teams to score. The price says 65%. The venue-matched record says 42% — only two of the last five meetings here produced goals at both ends. Liverpool have also kept two clean sheets in four league games this season. Cutting against it: both teams have scored in all four of Bournemouth's league games this season. That contradiction is real and it is the reason this sits at Good Bet rather than higher.
Total goals. The price is built for roughly three and a quarter goals. Our expected total is 2.9. The head-to-head at this ground averages 3.1 a game, which sits between the two and is why the Unders are Good Bets rather than the standout call. The whole line at Under 3 is the sharpest way in: exactly three goals is the single most likely total here, and on the whole line that returns your stake rather than losing it.
Liverpool total goals. A striking pattern: Liverpool have scored exactly two goals in each of their last five away league games, and they average 2.1 a game in the last five visits to this ground. That is why Liverpool Over 1.5 carries a small edge even while the match total leans under — the goals in this fixture have historically come from the visitors, not from both ends.
Match result. Liverpool have won three of the last five at this ground and come in unbeaten with three wins in five across all competitions, against a Bournemouth side still chasing a first league win and facing a three-day turnaround with travel. That is worth a few points on the away side. It is a modest edge, not a big one — Bournemouth won the most recent meeting here 3–2 and are unbeaten at home this season.
Clean sheet and win-to-nil markets. Liverpool shutting Bournemouth out is a live outcome — it has happened twice in the last five here. But in a league game this evenly priced, shutout markets are the least reliable thing on the card, so these are trimmed and sit at Speculative rather than in the main tips.
The draw. Bournemouth have drawn three of four, Liverpool have drawn three of four, and the price at 3.85 already reflects it. Our 25% matches the market almost exactly. Nothing to take here either way.
Betting tips
🟢 Best Bet
🟢
Best Bet Bournemouth total goals — Under 1.5
Odds 1.74
Bournemouth have scored 1.1 goals a game in the last five meetings at this ground, were held to one or fewer in four of them, and blanked in two. Kroupi and Adli are both out. They also play in San Sebastián on Thursday and kick off here at 14:00 WAT on Sunday. We make this 71% against a price that needs it landing about 55% of the time.
🔵 Good Bet
🔵
Good Bet Both teams to score — No
Odds 2.75
Only two of the last five meetings at this ground had goals at both ends. Liverpool have two clean sheets from four league games. We make this 45% against a price implying about 35%. The honest caveat is that both teams have scored in all four of Bournemouth's league games this season, so this is the pick with the loudest argument against it.
🔵
Good Bet Total goals (whole line) — Under 3
Odds 2.15
Our expected total is 2.9 goals against a price built for about 3.25. On the whole line, exactly three goals returns your stake instead of losing it, and three is the single most likely total in this game. We make Under 3 a 55% shot against a price implying 44%.
🔵
Good Bet Total goals — Under 3.5
Odds 1.70
The safer expression of the same view, and the one with no push. Three of the last five meetings at this ground finished with three goals or fewer. We make this 64% against a price implying 55%.
🔵
Good Bet Draw no bet — Liverpool
Odds 1.65
Liverpool have won three of the last five at this ground and arrive unbeaten with three wins in their last five across all competitions. Bournemouth are still without a league win and have a Thursday night in Spain in between. Your stake comes back if it finishes level. We make this 64% against a price implying 58%.
🎯 Solid Pick
🎯
Solid Pick Liverpool total goals — Over 0.5
Odds 1.16
Our assessment puts Liverpool scoring at 81% — a high-confidence call. They have found the net in four of the last five visits here and scored exactly twice in each of their last five away league games. The price is correct, so there is no edge to take, but this is a reliable leg for an accumulator.
🎯
Solid Pick Asian handicap — Bournemouth +1.5
Odds 1.25
Bournemouth stay in this unless they lose by two or more. We assess that at 74%, which is exactly where the price sits — fairly valued, no edge, but steady. Worth knowing before you use it: Liverpool have won by two or more here twice in the last five, so this is the less bulletproof of the two Solid Picks.
🟡 Speculative
🟡
Speculative Bournemouth total goals — Under 0.5
Odds 4.10
The big-price version of the Best Bet. Bournemouth have been shut out in two of the last five meetings here. We make it 28% against a price implying 23%.
Speculative because shutout markets in an evenly matched league game are the least reliable bets on the card, and Bournemouth have scored in every league game this season. Same bet as Liverpool clean sheet at 4.00 — take the bigger price.
⚪ No Edge
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
Match result — Draw @ 3.85 Our 25% matches the price. Both sides draw a lot and the market has already paid for it.
Asian handicap — Liverpool −1.5 @ 3.70 Our 26% sits level with the price. A two-goal Liverpool win is live but not underpriced.
Bournemouth clean sheet — Yes @ 5.00 Our 19% matches the price. Liverpool have scored in four of the last five visits here.
⛔ Avoid
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Bournemouth total goals — Over 1.5 @ 2.10 The worst value on the card. Bournemouth have managed two or more at this ground once in five meetings against Liverpool, and they are missing two forwards.
Both teams to score — Yes @ 1.46 At 1.46 you need this landing about 64% of the time. It has landed in 42% of the last five meetings here.
Total goals — Over 3 @ 1.70 The price wants four or more goals 56% of the time. Our number is 46%, and only two of the last five meetings here got there.
Total goals — Over 2.5 @ 1.46 The most backed market on this fixture. Our 57% against a price implying 64% makes it one of the biggest overprices on the card.
Total goals — Over 3.5 @ 2.10 We make this 36% against a price implying 45%. Liverpool have not scored more than twice in any game this season.
Liverpool to score in both halves — Yes @ 2.55 This needs Liverpool to score twice and spread them across both halves. Our 26% is well short of the 36% the price implies.
Bournemouth to score in both halves — Yes @ 3.10 Bournemouth average 1.1 goals a game here. Asking for one in each half is a 17% outcome on our numbers.
Liverpool total goals — Under 1.5 @ 2.05 Liverpool have scored exactly two in each of their last five away league games. Backing them to manage one or fewer runs straight into that.
Match result — Bournemouth win @ 3.04 Our 27% is below the 32% the price needs. No league win yet this season and a Thursday night in Spain three days before.
Total goals — Over 1.5 @ 1.13 At 1.13 you need this landing 88% of the time. We make it 79%. Short odds, still poor value.
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Supplementary market notes
Markets assessed but not recommended — included so you can see our full assessment across the odds card.
Liverpool total goals — Over 1.5 @ 1.77 Our 59% is a little ahead of the price. It is the one Over on this card that our numbers like, because the goals here have historically come from Liverpool rather than from both ends.
Liverpool clean sheet — Yes @ 4.00 and Bournemouth Under 0.5 @ 4.10 These are the same bet with two different prices. Both assess at 28%. Take 4.10.
Liverpool total goals — Over 0.5 @ 1.16 and Bournemouth clean sheet — No @ 1.15 Also the same bet. Both assess at 81%. Take 1.16.
Double chance — Bournemouth or Liverpool @ 1.28 Our 75% matches the price, so it reads as a Solid Pick on the numbers. Worth knowing that six of these two sides' eight league games this season have finished level.
Total goals — Over 0.5 @ 1.01 A 94% call priced at 94%. It clears the Solid Pick bar on the numbers, but at 1.01 there is nothing in it for a slip.
Total goals — Under 4.5 @ 1.29 and Under 2 @ 4.70 Both carry a real gap on our numbers, but they sit at the far ends of the goal distribution where a five-match sample is least reliable. Shown, not tipped.
Accumulator builder notes
One goals bet only Under 3.5, Under 3, Under 2.5, Under 2, Under 1.5, Under 4.5, Bournemouth Under 1.5, Bournemouth Under 0.5, Goal range and Both teams to score No are all the same bet wearing different shirts. They win or lose together on how many goals this game produces. Pick one. Stacking two or three of them on one slip is not three chances — it is one chance at a much worse price.
One result bet only Match result, double chance, draw no bet and the Asian handicap lines all settle off the same outcome. Only one of them belongs on a single slip.
Steadiest leg Liverpool to score at 1.16 is the most reliable leg on this card at 81%. If you want a bigger price with the same steadiness, Bournemouth +1.5 at 1.25 assesses at 74%.
Best single bet Bournemouth Under 1.5 goals at 1.74 carries the widest margin between our number and the price. It is also from the goals family, so it does not sit alongside the Unders.
Conditional flags
⚠️ Bournemouth team selection is the main swing factor. Part of the low-scoring case rests on tired legs after Thursday's trip to Spain. A full-strength, fresh-looking Bournemouth attack narrows the margin on the Best Bet, though it does not remove it. Heavy rotation widens it.
⚠️ Joe Gomez is listed as doubtful. With Bradley and Leoni already out, a late absence would leave Liverpool short at the back and lift the chance of goals at both ends, which cuts against the Both teams to score No pick.
ℹ️ The head-to-head sample is five matches at this ground and spans three and a half seasons. Both clubs have changed managers since the earliest of them, so the recency weighting leans hard on the January 2026 meeting.
Analysis confidence
Overall Medium
Odds parsing High
Live research Active
Referee Not listed
H2H data 5 meetings
Anomalies 3 flagged
Medium overall. The venue-matched head-to-head is the strongest input on this card and it lines up cleanly on one point: Bournemouth do not score many against Liverpool at this ground — 1.1 a game across five meetings, one goal or fewer in four of them. That is what carries the Best Bet. The total-goals picture is less clean. Our expected total is 2.9 while the same five meetings average 3.1 and Liverpool's away games this season have averaged 4.0 goals, so the Unders are Good Bets rather than the headline call. The league form sample is only four games per side, and no referee is attached.
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. You must be 18+ to bet. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact NRGP Nigeria at nrgpnigeria.org.
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