WAFCON: Morocco vs Kenya Predictions - July 26, 2026

Our assessment lands at 82% — comfortably above the fair line but essentially matched by the price. Morocco are unbeaten in their last five at home, unbeaten in their last six WAFCON group games, and face the lowest-ranked side in Group A. Not a value play — a very reliable leg for a longer accumulator.

If Morocco win the game they will almost certainly have "won" at least one half along the way, and even in the roughly one-in-five scenarios where they don't take the full three points, they still lead at half-time or full-time often enough to make this a very safe outcome. Assessment sits at 88%.

A stake refund on the draw pushes Morocco's effective probability of returning stake or profit to around 91%. Same reasoning as the straight match win — this is a defensive alternative for punters who want insurance against a shock stalemate, at a modest cut in return.

Combines everything that isn't a Kenya win into a single 1.01 return — assessment 93%. Meagre margin, but as an anchor leg on a longer coupon it fails only in the ~4% of scenarios where Kenya cause a genuine upset. Useful as a bank-builder rather than a stand-alone play.

Morocco opened the scoring in four of their last five home games — the only exception being the 1-1 Mali draw where they conceded on 12 minutes. With Chebbak and Jraïdi in the front line and a hostile Rabat crowd behind them, the opening 20 minutes typically belong to Morocco. Assessment 78% at the same 1.19 as the straight match win — pick one or the other, not both.