Match context
Both clubs are locked in the bottom three with two games remaining. Levante sit 19th with approximately 39 points and a goal difference of −16, while Mallorca occupy 16th on the same points total with a marginally better GD — making this effectively a direct six-pointer that could determine which side stays in La Liga. Levante have won four of their last five matches and are in the best form of their season heading in. Mallorca arrive severely depleted, with four confirmed injuries and a suspension stripping their squad depth, and they recorded the second-worst away record in La Liga all season (9 points from 17 away matches). No rotation risk applies to either team — both managers will field every available player.
Team news
Levante
Doubt Unai Vencedor — availability uncertain
Expected XI (4-1-4-1): Matthew Ryan; Jeremy Toljan, Pablo Martínez, Unai Elgezabal, Manu Sánchez; Oriol Rey; Kervin Arriaga, Roger Brugué, Iker Losada, Adrián de la Fuente; Carlos Espí (11 La Liga goals)
Mallorca
Out Antonio Raíllo — injury
Out Lucas Bergström — injury
Out Marash Kumbulla — injury
Out Mateo Joseph — injury
Susp Omar Mascarell — suspended
Doubt Johan Mojica, Justin Kalumba — fitness uncertain
Expected XI (4-2-3-1): Leo Román; Pablo Maffeo, Martin Valjent, David López, Toni Lato; Manu Morlanes, Samu Costa; Zito Luvumbo, Sergi Darder, Pablo Torre; Vedat Muriqi (21 La Liga goals)
Mallorca's defensive resources are severely stretched. Raíllo, Kumbulla and Bergström are all absent, leaving Valjent and López as the only fit senior centre-backs. Mascarell's suspension removes their most physical midfield presence. These absences reduce Mallorca's defensive stability and elevate Levante's threat from set pieces and transitions.
Referee intelligence
Referee Unconfirmed La Liga appointment pending
Classification Medium Contextual default
Cards confidence Low No profile available
Context note Relegation pressure typically lifts card counts. Pablo Maffeo (2.10) and Samu Costa (2.35) are the highest-probability card candidates from the player markets on offer.
Form & head-to-head
Head-to-head — Levante home (venue-matched primary)
| Date |
Result |
Goals |
BTTS |
| 08 Jan 2022 |
Levante 2–0 Mallorca |
2 |
No |
Head-to-head — All venues (supplementary)
| Date |
Result |
Goals |
BTTS |
| 08 Jan 2022 |
Levante 2–0 Mallorca |
2 |
No |
| 27 Aug 2020 |
Levante 2–1 Mallorca |
3 |
Yes |
| 22 Nov 2019 |
Mallorca 1–1 Levante |
2 |
Yes |
| 15 Oct 2016 |
Levante 1–2 Mallorca |
3 |
Yes |
| 09 Dec 2012 |
Levante 4–? Mallorca |
4+ |
Yes |
All-venues record (last 5): Levante 2W · 1D · 2L BTTS: Yes in 4 of 5 meetings Average goals: 2.8 per meeting Venue-matched: Only 1 Levante home meeting available — all-venues data is the primary H2H reference
Market probability table
| Market |
Outcome |
Verdict |
Odds |
My Assessment |
| 1X2 |
Levante Win |
Best Bet |
2.17 |
4-match win streak + Mallorca's worst-in-class away record and depleted squad |
| Over/Under 2.5 |
Over 2.5 Goals |
Good Bet |
1.87 |
BTTS in 4/5 H2H; 2.8 avg goals per meeting; both sides must attack |
| GG/NG |
BTTS Yes |
Speculative |
1.72 |
H2H supports (4/5) but Mallorca's attacking depletion limits confidence |
| Asian Handicap 0 |
Levante (Draw No Bet) |
No Edge |
1.55 |
Fair-priced; outright win at 2.17 offers better return for same direction |
| Over/Under 2.5 |
Under 2.5 Goals |
No Edge |
1.94 |
H2H average 2.8 goals argues against; 4/5 meetings went BTTS |
| GG/NG |
BTTS No |
No Edge |
2.15 |
Only 1 of 5 H2H meetings ended BTTS No; insufficient backing at this price |
| 1X2 |
Draw |
Avoid |
3.46 |
Both clubs need three points; the draw is the least desired outcome for either side |
| 1X2 |
Mallorca Win |
Avoid |
3.43 |
Worst away record in division; four injured, one suspended; 3–0 loss at Getafe five days ago |
| Corners Over/Under |
Over 9.5 |
No Edge |
1.83 |
Near-even pricing; no directional confidence sufficient for a call |
Betting tips
🟢 Best Bet
🟢
Best Bet 1X2 — Levante Win
Odds 2.17
Levante arrive in the form of their season — four consecutive La Liga wins including home victories over Getafe and Sevilla, scoring 10 goals across those four matches. They are fighting for survival on their own ground and will push relentlessly from kick-off. Mallorca, by contrast, carry one of La Liga's worst away records (9 points from 17 away matches, only 2 away wins all season), arrive with their central defence stripped to the bare minimum due to three injuries, a midfield enforcer suspended, and the confidence damage of a 3–0 hammering at Getafe five days ago. The odds of 2.17 imply approximately 46% probability for a Levante win. The true probability, factoring in current form differential, home advantage and Mallorca's structural weakness, sits closer to 54–57%.
🔵 Good Bet
🔵
Good Bet Over/Under — Over 2.5 Goals
Odds 1.87
Four of the last five meetings between these sides ended with both teams scoring, and the average across those five H2H fixtures is 2.8 goals per game. Levante's last four wins have produced 10 goals total and their current attacking output is the highest of their season. Mallorca carry Vedat Muriqi — a 21-goal striker who cannot be fully contained even by a fresh defence. Both teams attack with urgency in a survival fixture, and the H2H trend points clearly toward goals. At 1.87 the market prices Over 2.5 at roughly 53.5% implied — the evidence supports the true probability being closer to 60%.
🟡 Speculative
🟡
Speculative GG/NG — BTTS Yes
Odds 1.72
H2H data shows BTTS Yes in 4 of 5 meetings, and Muriqi's individual quality is sufficient to threaten any backline. Levante have also conceded in all but one of their last four wins, meaning clean sheet probability is moderate rather than high. The case for BTTS is sound but the odds of 1.72 leave limited margin — best suited as an accumulator leg rather than a standalone selection.
Uncertainty: Mallorca's forward options are reduced with Mateo Joseph injured and attacking resources depleted. If Muriqi is well-managed, Mallorca may not create enough to score.
⚪ No Edge
These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:
Asian Handicap 0 — Levante @ 1.55 The outright win at 2.17 offers better return for the same directional call
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.94 H2H average 2.8 goals and 4/5 BTTS meetings argues firmly against
BTTS No @ 2.15 Only 1 of 5 H2H meetings ended BTTS No; price insufficient for the risk
Corners Over 9.5 @ 1.83 Near-even pricing; no sufficient directional evidence to back either side
⛔ Avoid
These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:
Draw @ 3.46 Both clubs need three points for survival — the draw is structurally the least likely tactical outcome
Mallorca Win @ 3.43 Second-worst away record in La Liga; four injured, one suspended; 3–0 loss at Getafe five days ago
Accumulator builder notes
Banker leg Levante Win (2.17) qualifies as a banker leg. Home team in a survival must-win, on a four-match winning run, against a side with the second-worst away record in the division. Acceptable in doubles and trebles alongside similarly well-grounded home selections.
Combined selection Levante Win + Over 2.5 Goals is the most coherent double — both tips share the same underlying logic (attacking Levante at home vs depleted Mallorca defence). The Combo tab lists this combination at 3.25, the most concentrated single-market expression of the analysis.
Avoid stacking with Do not combine Levante Win with BTTS No or Under 2.5 — the H2H template does not support those outcomes alongside the home win. Do not include Mallorca-related selections in any accumulator format from this fixture.
Conditional flags
⚠️ Samu Costa suspension: Costa was banned for MD36 (Getafe). If it was a one-match ban, he returns here and strengthens Mallorca's midfield. ✅ Available — no change to verdicts. ❌ Still suspended — reinforces the Levante Win and Over 2.5 cases further.
⚠️ Simultaneous MD37 results: Other relegation rivals play on the same matchday. Live table movements could alter what each team tactically needs from this fixture in the second half, potentially affecting game flow and total goal count.
ℹ️ Referee appointment: Not yet confirmed. Card market selections carry elevated uncertainty until the referee's profile is known.
Analysis confidence
Overall Medium
Odds parsing High
Live research Active
Referee Unconfirmed
H2H data 5 meetings
Anomalies 1 flagged
Overall confidence is Medium. The Levante Win case is well-grounded in verified form (4W in last 5), home advantage and Mallorca's structural deficiencies. The Over 2.5 tip rests on H2H data showing BTTS in 4 of 5 meetings and an average of 2.8 goals per fixture. Main uncertainty centres on Mallorca's full injury/suspension picture and simultaneous relegation results that could shift second-half tactics. The one flagged anomaly — near-identical Draw and Away prices (3.46 / 3.43) — reflects bookmaker uncertainty and does not alter the verdict structure. No xG data was available for this fixture.
Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP Nigeria).
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