Levante vs Osasuna Predictions - 8th May, 2026

Betting tips, La Liga, Football Tips | May 07 2026

La Liga Matchday 36 Estadi Ciutat de València

Levante vs Osasuna

Friday, 8 May 2026 · Kick-off: 20:00 WAT (21:00 CEST)

Live web research: unavailable for this run. Form, head-to-head and odds were taken directly from supplied data.

Match context

This is a survival match for Levante. The newly-promoted side sits in the relegation zone with a handful of matches remaining and need wins from every home game to stay alive — their stadium has been their most reliable source of points all season (4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 home La Liga games). Osasuna are mid-table, comfortably clear of relegation and out of European contention. The motivational gap heavily favours Levante and is partly priced into the home side at 2.63.

Rotation risk for both sides: Low. Domestic-only fixture with no European or cup distraction. Both managers expected to field strongest available XIs — Levante out of necessity, Osasuna because there is no incentive to rest players ahead of the off-season. The combination of home advantage at a hostile Estadi Ciutat de València and Levante's desperation is the dominant context lens through which every market should be read.

Team news

Levante

KeyEtta Eyong — Cameroonian forward and primary attacking output. Active across player-prop markets — expected to start.

WatchCarlos Álvarez — creative midfielder. Locked on certain player-prop markets, which the bookmaker typically does when there is rotation or fitness uncertainty.

WatchIván Romero, Kervin Arriaga — both locked from "first carded" and "player to be booked" markets, signalling possible late doubt.

NoteMathew Ryan in goal. Defensive core: Matturro, Elgezabal, Manu Sánchez, Toljan.

Likely XI (4-2-3-1): Ryan; Toljan, Matturro, Elgezabal, Manu Sánchez; Olasagasti, Rey; Brugué, Álvarez, Eyong; Romero.

Osasuna

KeyAnte Budimir — Croatian striker and primary scoring threat. Active on "player to be booked" at 4.92 — expected to start.

KeyAimar Oroz — chief creator. Active on player-prop markets at 4.09 to be booked.

WatchJuan Cruz — locked from booking markets. Possible absentee.

NoteDefensive core: Catena, Boyomo, Herrando. Sergio Herrera in goal.

Likely XI (4-3-3): Herrera; Rosier, Catena, Boyomo, Bretones; Moncayola, Torro, Oroz; Rubén García, Budimir, Raúl Moro.

Market impact: Both sides expected to field strongest available XIs. The locked Levante player-prop markets reduce confidence on individual cards/scorer specials but do not materially alter goals or BTTS reads. Goalscoring is concentrated on Eyong (Lev) and Budimir (Osa) — if either is absent, lean further into Under markets.

Referee intelligence

Referee Unconfirmed Not yet announced

Classification Medium (fallback)

Cards confidence Low

Implication Cards markets anchored to league average; no directional tightening.

Form & head-to-head

Levante — Last 5 Home (La Liga)

W 2–0 vs Sevilla W 1–0 vs Getafe W 4–2 vs Oviedo D 1–1 vs Girona W 2–0 vs Alavés

4W-1D-0L · 10 scored, 3 conceded · 4 clean sheets · only 1 of 5 went over 2.5 goals (the 4–2 vs Oviedo) · BTTS in 2 of 5.

Osasuna — Last 5 Away (La Liga)

L 0–1 at Ath Bilbao D 2–2 at Alavés L 1–3 at Sociedad L 0–1 at Valencia D 0–0 at Elche

0W-2D-3L · only 3 goals scored · failed to score in 4 of 5 away trips · BTTS in 2 of 5.

H2H — Levante at home (primary dataset)

Date	Home	Score	Away	BTTS	Goals
05.12.21	Levante	0–0	Osasuna	No	0
14.02.21	Levante	0–1	Osasuna	No	1
29.09.19	Levante	1–1	Osasuna	Yes	2
01.03.14	Levante	2–0	Osasuna	No	2
25.02.13	Levante	0–2	Osasuna	No	2

Avg goals: 1.4 / game BTTS rate: 20% (1/5) Over 2.5 rate: 0% (0/5) Under 3.5 rate: 100% (5/5)

Recency caveat: the most recent venue-matched meeting was December 2021 (4+ years ago). The pattern is strongly directional — 5 of 5 meetings under 3.5 goals, 4 of 5 with one or both teams blanking — but the dataset's age means current form is the dominant signal. The H2H is supplementary confirmation.

Market probability table — key markets

Market	Outcome	Verdict	Odds	My Assessment
BTTS	No	Best Bet	2.21	62%
Total goals	Under 3.5	Good Bet	1.35	78%
1H result	Draw	Speculative	2.20	46%
Osasuna cards	Over 2.5	Speculative	1.62	62%
Match result	Levante	No edge	2.63	37%
Match result	Draw	No edge	3.40	29%
Match result	Osasuna	No edge	2.93	34%
Double chance	1X (Levante / Draw)	No edge	1.51	66%
Total goals	Under 2.5	No edge	1.83	53%
Total goals	Over 1.5	No edge	1.30	75%
Asian Handicap	Levante 0	No edge	1.92	52%
Match cards	5+	No edge	1.43	70%
Match corners	Under 9.5	No edge	1.83	55%
BTTS	Yes	Avoid	1.83	38%
Total goals	Over 2.5	Avoid	1.96	42%
Total goals	Over 3.5	Avoid	3.33	22%
Both score both halves	Yes	Avoid	13.00	3%

Markets not covered in this analysis

Market	Status	Reason
Anytime / First goalscorer	Locked / partially locked	Several player-prop markets locked in source data
Correct score (single line)	Not assessed individually	Margin too thin per line; better expressed via goal-line markets
Half-time / Full-time	Listed but not actioned	Variance high; covered by 1H result + match result reads
Odd / Even goals	Closed (Category D)	No reliable signal — pure variance market

Betting tips

🟢 Best Bet

🟢

Best Bet BTTS — No

Odds 2.21

Why: Three independent signals all converge. Levante have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home La Liga games (only Girona scored, in a 1–1). Osasuna have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away trips — just 3 goals across 5 fixtures. The venue-matched H2H produced BTTS No in 4 of 5 meetings (only the 2019 1–1 saw both score). Bookmaker prices BTTS Yes at 1.83 (implied 54.7%), but with Osasuna's away scoring rate at roughly 0.6 goals/game and Levante's home defence as solid as it has looked all season, the true probability of both teams finding the net sits closer to 35–40%. That makes BTTS No the correct side at 2.21 — an estimated edge of +15 percentage points.

🔵 Good Bet

🔵

Good Bet Total goals — Under 3.5

Odds 1.35

Why: The expected match total sits between 2.2 and 2.5 goals based on Levante's home output (10 scored, 3 conceded across last 5 home) and Osasuna's away record (3 scored, 7 conceded across last 5 away). A Poisson model centred around λ=2.4 produces an Under 3.5 probability of roughly 78%. The bookmaker's fair price implies 71.2%. Add the H2H — 5 of 5 venue-matched meetings finished under 3.5 goals, and only 1 of Levante's last 5 home games crossed that line — and you have an estimated edge of +6–8 percentage points. Levante in survival mode play conservative, defensively-disciplined football at home, and Osasuna travel without urgency.

🟡 Speculative

🟡

Speculative First half — Draw

Odds 2.20

Why: La Liga first halves between two cautious sides under high relegation stakes are typically cagey. The bookmaker's fair probability for HT Draw is 42.8%; first-half Under 1.5 is priced at 66.3%. With Levante's defensive home record (4 clean sheets in 5) and Osasuna's away reluctance to commit forward (failed to score in 4 of 5), 0–0 at the break is the most likely individual outcome — and 0–0 is a draw. A modest edge of +2–4 pp on the HT Draw line.

Note: Speculative because draw markets carry high variance, and a single first-half goal flips the outcome.

🟡

Speculative Osasuna cards — Over 2.5

Odds 1.62

⚠️ Conditional flag: Heavily dependent on referee classification. A low-card referee (under 4.5/game) weakens this lean significantly. A high-card referee (over 5.5/game) widens the edge.

Why: Osasuna are historically one of the more physical, foul-prone sides in La Liga. The bookmaker's bookings handicap reinforces the read — Osasuna favoured to take more bookings than Levante (Away -0.5 at 1.95 vs Home -0.5 at 2.75). Travel + relegation-fight intensity from a desperate home side typically inflates the away team's card count. Bookmaker fair probability is 58.1%; estimated true rate sits closer to 62% — edge of +3–5 pp.

Note: Confidence is Low because the referee is unconfirmed and cards markets are referee-driven.

⚪ No Edge

These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge identified:

Levante to win @ 2.63 Home form supports the lean, but draw probability is real — DC 1X is the cleaner expression

Draw @ 3.40 Priced near fair; not a stand-alone bet given Levante's home strength

Osasuna to win @ 2.93 Bookmaker overstates this slightly given Osasuna's poor away form, but not enough for a fade signal

Double chance 1X @ 1.51 Fairly priced — covers Levante home strength but offers no value gap

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 Fair true rate ~53% vs implied 49% — slim edge, not enough to action

Over 1.5 goals @ 1.30 Likely outcome but priced fairly

Asian Handicap Levante 0 @ 1.92 Form supports a Levante lean but priced at fair value

Match cards 5+ @ 1.43 League average baseline; no directional edge with referee unknown

Corners under 9.5 @ 1.83 Priced at fair; no recent corners data to swing the call

⛔ Avoid

These markets are overpriced at current odds — we recommend skipping:

BTTS Yes @ 1.83 Implies 54.7% but Osasuna's 0.6 away goals/game and Levante's 4-in-5 clean-sheet rate put true rate at ~38%. The book is heavily wrong here.

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.96 Implied 51% but expected total ~2.3 → true Over 2.5 ≈ 42–46%. Only 1 of Levante's last 5 home crossed 2.5; 0 of 5 H2H meetings did.

Over 3.5 goals @ 3.33 Implies 28.8% but true rate ≈ 22%. Direct complement of the Under 3.5 Good Bet.

Both teams score in both halves @ 13.00 Compound improbability — requires BTTS Yes (≈38%) twice. True rate ~3%, implied ~7.7%. Heavily overpriced.

Supplementary market notes

BTTS & Under 3.5 combined — both Best Bet (BTTS No) and Good Bet (Under 3.5) point in the same direction: a low-scoring, possibly one-sided result. They are not equivalent (a 4–0 satisfies Under 3.5 but kills BTTS No; a 3–0 wins both), but they share a strong directional thesis.

Asian Handicap context — the Levante 0 line at 1.92 is supported directionally by form (4-1-0 home vs 0-2-3 away) but the sample is small enough that we are not classifying it as Speculative. Treat it as a soft lean rather than a value bet.

HT/FT and exact-score markets — these were available in the source data but not actioned individually. Variance per line is too high for confident pricing without live verification. The first-half draw lean above is the only HT-related call.

Accumulator builder notes

Banker leg Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.35 is the cleanest banker — assessment 78%, supported by both recent form and 5/5 venue-matched H2H. Use this as the base of any acca leg involving this fixture.

Stronger price, similar thesis BTTS No @ 2.21 carries the same low-scoring thesis at much better odds. Use as a single, or as a higher-variance acca leg for builders chasing larger returns.

Avoid stacking equivalents Do not combine Under 3.5 + Under 2.5 + BTTS No on the same ticket — these are positively correlated, the combined acca odds will look fat but the true probability of all three is much lower than the multiplied price suggests. Pick one.

Conditional flags

⚠️ Lineup confirmation: tips assume both teams field strongest available XIs. ✅ If Eyong (Lev) and Budimir (Osa) start → all tips stand as classified. ❌ If Budimir is unexpectedly absent → BTTS No edge widens further (Osasuna's away scoring rate without him drops near zero).

⚠️ Referee (cards market): the Speculative tip on Osasuna Cards Over 2.5 is referee-dependent. ✅ Medium-or-high-card official → tip stands or upgrades. ❌ Low-card official → drop the cards lean entirely.

ℹ️ Late-window goal risk: if Levante chase a multi-goal lead late, BTTS No can break in the final 10 minutes via an Osasuna consolation. Goal-line markets (Under 3.5) are insulated from this; BTTS No is more exposed.

Analysis confidence

Overall Medium-High

Odds parsing High

Live research Unavailable

Form & H2H Verified

Referee Unconfirmed

Anomalies 0 flagged

Confidence on goals and BTTS markets is High because both recent form and head-to-head data are directly verified. Confidence on cards markets is Low pending referee announcement. Lineup remains unconfirmed but the goal-line and BTTS reads are robust to typical XI variation given how strongly Levante's home defence and Osasuna's away attack have converged on the Under thesis.

Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP Nigeria).

Upcoming Match Tips

Upcoming Match Tips

Upcoming Match Tips

Upcoming Match Tips

Upcoming Match Tips

Upcoming Match Tips

Football Insights

Basketball Insights

Tennis Insights

Boxing Insights

Levante vs Osasuna Predictions - 8th May, 2026

Match context

Team news

Referee intelligence

Form & head-to-head

Market probability table — key markets

Markets not covered in this analysis

Betting tips

Supplementary market notes

Accumulator builder notes

Conditional flags

Analysis confidence