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Football Tips Article

Everton vs Crystal Palace Predictions - August 22, 2026

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betCompare Editor Author
Premier League Matchday 1 Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Saturday, 22 August 2026  ·  Kick-off: 15:00 WAT (15:00 BST)
  Live data active.

Match context

This is the opening game of the season for both teams. Everton play at home under David Moyes. Crystal Palace are away for the first match of their new manager, Pierre Sage. Everton go in with a midfield problem: two players are out and one more is a big doubt, so Moyes will likely set up compact and hit on the break. The home history is the strong thread here — Everton have won four and drawn one of the last five home meetings with Palace, and have scored in every one. As it is the first match of the season, neither team has a midweek game, so there is no tiredness or rotation risk.

Team news

Everton
Out Christian Nørgaard — injury
Out Tim Iroegbunam — injury
Doubtful James Garner — groin

Expected XI: 4-2-3-1 — Pickford; Patterson, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Hackney, Dewsbury-Hall; Dibling, Ndiaye, Alcaraz; Barry.

Crystal Palace
Doubtful Adam Wharton — ankle

Expected XI: 3-4-2-1 — Henderson; Canvot, Richards, Riad; Mingueza, Kamada, Wharton, Mitchell; Sarr, McNeil; Strand Larsen.

Everton's midfield injuries point to a more compact, counter-attacking shape. The strongest read is their home record against Palace: they do not lose this game and they always score. That is what shapes the picks below.

Referee intelligence

Referee Paul Tierney Match official
Classification Medium ~3.3–3.6 yellows/game
Cards confidence Medium
Implication A steady, fairly lenient official — total bookings should land near the market line, so no strong cards edge either way.

Form & head-to-head

Everton — recent form (last 5)
D 1–1 L 1–3 D 3–3 L 1–2 W 3–0
A mixed run with some high-scoring games (3–3, 1–3), but Everton found the net in every one of these matches.
Crystal Palace — recent form (last 5)
L 0–3 W 2–1 W 0–0 L 0–3 D 2–2
Mostly pre-season friendlies, so a weak guide. The 0–0 was a penalty-shootout win. New manager Pierre Sage has no competitive game at Palace yet.
H2H — Everton at home (primary dataset)
Date Home Score Away BTTS Goals
05 Oct 2025 Everton 2–1 Crystal Palace Yes 3
28 Sep 2024 Everton 2–1 Crystal Palace Yes 3
19 Feb 2024 Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace Yes 2
17 Jan 2024 Everton 1–0 Crystal Palace No 1
22 Oct 2022 Everton 3–0 Crystal Palace No 3
Everton home record: 4 W, 1 D BTTS rate: 60% Avg goals: 2.4/game Over 2.5 rate: 60%

Market probability table — key markets

Market Outcome Verdict Odds My Assessment
Double Chance Everton (win or draw) Solid Pick 1.33 73%
Palace clean sheet No — Everton to score Solid Pick 1.23 78%
Over/Under 1.5 Over 1.5 Solid Pick 1.30 75%
Match result Everton win No edge 2.25 45%
Match result Draw No edge 3.50 29%
Match result Crystal Palace win No edge 3.44 28%
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 No edge 1.91 52%
Over/Under 3.5 Under 3.5 No edge 1.36 73%
Both Teams to Score No No edge 1.46 63%
Everton clean sheet Yes No edge 2.90 31%
Total bookings Over 3.5 No edge 1.78 52%
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Betting tips

🎯 Solid Pick
🎯
Solid Pick Everton to win or draw (Double Chance)
Odds 1.33

We put Everton avoiding defeat at about 73%, close to the price. There is no big edge, but it is a reliable leg: Everton are at home and have won four and drawn one of the last five home meetings with Palace. A dependable banker for a multi-bet.

Confidence: High Reliable accumulator leg
🎯
Solid Pick Everton to score (Palace no clean sheet)
Odds 1.23

We make Everton scoring about 78%. They are at home with their main attackers fit, and they scored in all five of the last home games against Palace. The odds are short, so this works best as a banker leg in a bigger bet, not on its own.

Confidence: High Reliable accumulator leg
🎯
Solid Pick Over 1.5 Goals
Odds 1.30

We make this about 75%. Four of the last five home meetings had two or more goals, and Everton have scored in every recent game. Another short-priced but reliable leg for a multi-bet.

Confidence: Medium Reliable accumulator leg
⚪ No Edge

These markets were assessed and found fairly priced — no meaningful edge:

Everton win @ 2.25 Priced about right for a home favourite (~45%).
Draw @ 3.50 Fairly priced at roughly 29%.
Crystal Palace win @ 3.44 About right for an away side with no win here in the last five.
Under 2.5 @ 1.91 Roughly a coin-flip; the recent meetings were split on goals.
Under 3.5 @ 1.36 Likely (~73%) but priced fairly — no room for value.
Both Teams to Score — No @ 1.46 Both teams scored in three of the last five — priced about right.
Everton clean sheet @ 2.90 Everton have been leaky lately; no value either way.
Over 3.5 bookings @ 1.78 Tierney is around average on cards; priced fairly.
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Accumulator builder notes

Equivalent markets Everton win-or-draw (1.33), Draw No Bet on Everton, and Everton 1UP all back the same thing — Everton not losing. Put only one of them on a single slip. Stacking them is not real cover: if Everton lose, they all lose together.
Banker leg The steadiest single legs are Everton to score (1.23) and Everton win-or-draw (1.33). Note that Over 1.5 and Everton to score both rely on Everton finding the net, so they overlap — treat them as one idea, not two separate legs.

Conditional flags

ℹ️ Everton are without three first-choice central midfielders. A very defensive shape could mean fewer goals; a more open one could mean more chances at both ends.
ℹ️ Palace are away in their new manager's first competitive game, so their exact shape is still an unknown. Adam Wharton is a doubt with an ankle issue.

Analysis confidence

Overall Medium
Odds parsing High
Live research Active
Referee Named
H2H data 5 meetings
Anomalies 1 flagged

Overall confidence is Medium. The market looks efficient for an opening-day game, so the edges here are Everton's reliable home markers rather than big mispricings. The two main unknowns are Everton's reshuffled midfield and Palace's new manager, who has no competitive game yet. The one flagged item is the group of Everton "not to lose" markets, which we collapsed to a single accumulator leg.

Responsible betting — This analysis is produced for informational and entertainment purposes only. All betting carries risk. Tips represent assessed value based on available data and are not guarantees of outcome. You must be 18+ to bet. Please bet responsibly and within your means. If you feel your betting is becoming a problem, contact the National Responsible Gambling Programme (NRGP Nigeria) — nrgpnigeria.org.

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